Your Reading List

Forecast: Winter here to stay?

Issued November 6, 2017: Covering the period from November 8 to November 15

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this fall. The combination of a wet September and a dry October across agricultural Manitoba has resulted in near- to slightly above-average amounts of precipitation this season. The only area with below-average amounts was the northwestern region. Farther west, eastern Saskatchewan along with southern Alberta were drier than average, while western Saskatchewan and most of central and northern Alberta were wetter than average.

Last week’s forecast played out close to what the weather models predicted. The main difference was that last weekend’s low moved through southern and central regions a day earlier than expected. It also wasn’t able to tap into as much warm air as originally anticipated, resulting in the first widespread significant snowfall of the season.

For this forecast period it looks like winter might just be here to stay as cold high pressure looks to dominate our region. The first area of high pressure will build into our region late on Wednesday. We may see a few clouds along with the odd flurry early on Wednesday as a cold front pushes through ahead of the high. The high will be directly over southern and central Manitoba on Friday morning. This will likely be the coldest day, with the daytime high expected to be in the -5 to -8 C range with an overnight low around -15 C.

As this high slides off to the east a weak trough of low pressure is forecasted to move through on Saturday, bringing with it some clouds along with a little bit of light snow. Another area of high pressure will then move in on Sunday, bringing a return to sunny skies and cool temperatures.

This second high will slowly move off to our southeast during the first half of next week. At the same time, an area of low pressure will move in off the Pacific and slide across the Prairies. The southerly flow on the back side of the high and ahead of the low will help to moderate our temperatures. Expect daytime highs to approach the 0° mark by Wednesday with overnight lows around -8 C. It looks like we’ll see a wintery mix of precipitation from this system, with some rain possible during the day transitioning to snow by evening.

Usual Temperature Range for this period: highs: -6 to 6 C, lows: -15 to -2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 75 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications