Latest articles

Forecast: Unsettled, unpredictable weather pattern

Issued June 17, 2019: Covering the period from June 19 to 26

Well, last week’s forecast turned out not too bad, considering this annoying weather pattern in which we seem to be stuck. The weather models seem to be having an OK time handling the large-scale features, but are struggling with the day-to-day details. This forecast period looks like it will be another tough one to figure […] Read more

Forecast: A cool start, then summer returns

Issued June 10, 2019: Covering the period from June 12 to 19

On the good news side of things, the weather models were pretty accurate with last week’s forecast. The western low developed as forecast and followed the predicted northerly track over the weekend. It did bring in warmer-than-expected air last Friday, with some areas of central and eastern regions seeing daytime highs pushing 35 C. The […] Read more

Forecast: Warmer, with a chance of showers

Issued June 3, 2019: Covering the period from June 5 to 12

Last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models were predicting with one major exception. The area of low pressure that tracked southeastward through our region last Friday didn’t bring much in the way of clouds or showers, but it did open the door for a very unseasonably cold air mass to […] Read more

Forecast: Warmer with a chance of thundershowers

Issued May 27, 2019: Covering the period from May 29 to June 5

The weather models now consistently show a break in our weather pattern with a more seasonable pattern developing. This means warmer temperatures, and while it doesn’t look like we will see any big storm systems, with warmer weather comes the risk of thunderstorms. We begin this forecast period with a broad ridge of high pressure […] Read more

Forecast: Seasonable with a chance of some rain

Issued May 20, 2019: Covering the period from May 22 to May 29

Surprisingly, last week’s forecast didn’t turn out too bad, considering all the differences between the weather models last weekend. Not sure what the better trade-off was: cool and dry, or cool and wet? From my observations, it seems like most of the planting has been done, and while there is OK soil moisture, things are […] Read more

Forecast: Lots of uncertainty in the week ahead

Issued May 13, 2019: Covering the period from May 15 to May 22

The two main weather models I look at when trying to come up with the forecast each week are interpreting the overall big picture similarly for the next week or two — but as I’ve pointed out several times over the years, a difference of only a few hundred kilometres can have a major impact […] Read more

Forecast: Seasonable weather, but continued dry spell

Issued May 6, 2019: Covering the period from May 8 to May 15

It finally looks like we are almost done dealing with a large upper-level low that has been controlling our weather over the last couple of weeks. The main upper low did track across north-central Manitoba over the weekend as predicted, but instead of moving off into Quebec, it looks like it will meander over Hudson […] Read more

Forecast: A slow warming trend ahead

Issued April 29, 2019: Covering the period from May 1 to May 8

Once again, last week’s forecast quickly fell apart as cool high pressure combined with a retrograding upper low over Northern Canada played havoc with the forecast. What looked to be a fairly wet period turned out to be dry, as the forecast areas of low pressure were pushed to our south with only far western […] Read more

Forecast: Is the dry spring weather coming to an end?

Issued April 22, 2019: Covering the period from April 24 to May 1

For the first time in a while, last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models were predicting, with the added bonus of temperatures ending up a little warmer than expected. This forecast period will begin with a predominantly zonal flow with the jet stream tracking across the southern Prairies. This will […] Read more

Forecast: It’s feeling more like spring

Issued April 15, 2019: Covering the period from April 17 to April 24

For those of you who closely follow the weather and forecasting, you know that small changes early in the forecast period are often amplified later. Last week’s forecast was a perfect example of this. The arctic high that brought the cool weather last week also helped to protect us from a large Colorado low that […] Read more