GFM Network News

Forecast: Winter doesn’t want to leave

Covering the period from April 1 to April 8

If I’ve said it once, I have said it at least a hundred times: Forecasting the weather at this time of the year is hard. If you have been following the weather models over the last couple of weeks you would know what I mean. One day they forecast a big warm-up and next a

Forecast: Spring weather slow to move in

Covering the period from March 25 to April 1

Well, my last forecast was not too bad — a little optimistic on temperatures, maybe, but the overall pattern was handled pretty well by the weather models. The main reason is that we seem to be stuck in this particular weather pattern, so until something big comes along to change it, expect more of the

Forecast: Colder-than-average temperatures expected

Covering the period from March 18 to March 25

For those of you who regularly read my forecasts, you will know I hate to write forecasts in the spring and fall — but especially in the spring. The yearly fight between cold and warm air in the spring often makes it difficult to accurately predict the weather beyond about five days. Since I write

Forecast: One final shot of arctic air ahead?

Covering the period from March 11 to March 18

As expected, we did see an active storm track during the last forecast period, and as often happens, the weather models struggled. The biggest issue the weather models seem to have is with the intensity of the cold air. The models keep trying to drop in some fairly cold air, but so far, we have

Forecast: Storm track setting up to our north

Covering the period from March 4 to March 11

Last issue’s forecast did an OK job. It captured the overall pattern, but was a little off regarding temperatures and overpredicted the amount of snow with a weak area of low pressure. This forecast period looks like it will be an interesting one. Weather models show the main storm track setting up across the central

Forecast: Winter and spring battling it out

Covering the period from February 26 to March 4

For the first time in a while, last issue’s forecast played out pretty much as the weather models predicted. Mild air moved in last weekend and was followed by a shot of colder air during the middle part of this week. For this forecast period, it looks like we will start off with an area

Forecast: Is spring fighting its way in early?

Covering the period from February 19 to February 26

As I pointed out at the beginning of last week’s forecast, when there is a switch in the weather pattern, the devil is in the details and we definitely noticed that last week. The weather models correctly forecasted a couple of outbreaks of cold arctic air. What they failed to get right was just how

Forecast: Colder weather definitely moving back in

Covering the period from February 12 to February 19

Any time we see a switch in the weather pattern, the weather models tend to struggle a little bit on the day-to-day details, and we saw this happen with last week’s forecast. Colder air tried to move in several times, but these cold intrusions only lasted a day or so before milder air moved back

Forecast: Winter’s not done yet

Covering the period from February 5 to February 12

It’s starting to sound like a broken record, but once again, the weather models have done a decent job with the short- to medium-term forecasts. It can be tough to get the temperatures bang on when we are dealing with clouds with the occasional clear patch. Also, with the stagnant flow, the weather models were

Forecast: Split flow brings mild weather

Covering the period from January 29 to February 5

Once again, the weather models have been doing a decent job with the short- to medium-term forecasts. As usual, some of the smaller details are getting missed, but the models are handling the overall pattern quite well. For most of the last forecast period and the first part of this forecast period we have been