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Weather Vane

Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Cold with slight chance of snow

Covering the period from October 21 to October 28

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Once again, the weather models did a pretty good job with the medium-range forecast. The northern Manitoba low stalled out as forecast, and we saw the resulting surge of cold air push southward, bringing an abrupt end to the seasonable fall temperatures. The only thing the weather models got wrong was that the daytime highs ended up being a little cooler
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Let’s ride the temperature rollercoaster

Covering the period from October 7 to October 14

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Well, we definitely saw the cold northwesterly flow develop last week that allowed cool arctic air to drop southeastward, bringing the first good blast of fall weather. At least we did not see any snow, or at least I did not hear about any. The weather models did a good job calling for that cooldown,
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Manitoba sliding into fall weather

Covering the period from September 30 to October 7

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Last week’s forecast was pretty spot on for the first half, but things started to fall apart over the last few days. To give the weather models some credit, they stuck to their forecast of warm weather during the first half of the week for a long time before a last-minute switch, thanks to weaker-than-expected
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Warm temps and a relatively dry spell ahead

Covering the period from September 23 to 30

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Well, last week’s forecast was a little hit and miss. The cool high pressure that was forecast to be sitting to our north early in the forecast period dropped farther south than expected, bringing much cooler weather than expected. By the weekend, though, we did see the forecasted building ridge of high pressure that brought
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Warm and relatively dry weather ahead

Covering the period from September 16 to 23

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Overall, last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models had predicted with the cold start and then sunny and mild conditions late last week and over the weekend. For this forecast period it looks like the cold air will be kept to our north, but as we slowly move deeper into
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Warmer weather returns

Covering the period from September 9 to 16

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For last week’s forecast the weather models did a pretty darned good job. We definitely saw the cool-down and there were plenty of scattered showers, with central and eastern regions seeing a bit more compared to western regions. The big question is whether we will continue to see cooler-than-average conditions — or will we see
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Near-freezing temperatures not that far off

Forecast issued Aug. 28, covering the period from Sept. 2 to 9

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Interestingly, even though there was not a lot of confidence in much of last week’s forecast, it was the lower-confidence second half of the forecast that ended up being the most accurate. This means it looks like we are in for a period of cool weather after nearly three months of above-average conditions. Looking at
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather school: How are clouds formed?

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COLLISIONS Clouds appear when atmospheric moisture condenses as droplets big enough to be visible

Last week we talked about how clouds are classified, then I said we would continue our look at clouds by examining each of the different cloud types in a little more detail, discussing just what type of weather we could normally expect with each type of cloud. We are still going to do that, but
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Columns, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Lots of uncertainty in the skies

Forecast issued Aug. 21, 2020, covering the period from Aug. 26 to Sept. 2, 2020

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Last issue’s forecast didn’t pan out exactly as the weather models figured. As with previous forecasts, the general pattern was fairly accurate, but the timing ended up being off by several days. As we continue into the transition period between summer and fall, we will likely see more difficulties with the weather models trying to

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