A developing “super El-Nino” could have profound effects on crops around the world this growing season — and the ripple effects could reach Canadian grain and pulse markets.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) recently issued its prediction for sea surface temperature anomalies for the next seven months. Its Nino Plumes chart raised a lot of eyebrows in the weather watching world.
“It is suggesting one of the strongest El Nino events on record, which will likely top the 1982 and 1997 events,” Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solution’s principal atmospheric scientist, said in a recent YouTube video.
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The model shows that sea surface temperatures could be about 2.5 C higher than normal by the end of the forecast period, indicating that an “eye-popping” El Nino weather event is on the way.
“I’ll be honest, when I looked at it, I said, ‘you’ve got to be kidding me’,” said Snodgrass in another YouTube video.
Spring forecasts don’t always get it right
However, Snodgrass is quick to point out that spring forecasts of El Nino events are notorious for missing the mark.
For instance, in the spring of 2017, the ECMWF was forecasting a moderate El Nino event by later that summer, but it never materialized.
Snodgrass is not suggesting that will happen this time around. Westerly wind bursts and Pacific trade winds do suggest there is a high probability of a rapid transition to El Nino this year.
Bruce Burnett, markets desk analyst for The Western Producer, said the ECMWF is the gold standard for medium-range weather forecasts. However, he thinks the timing of El Nino’s influence is more important than the relative strength of the event, and he noted that other weather models are suggesting it will arrive later in the year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States believes conditions will be ENSO-neutral in the May through July period, with El Nino likely arriving in the June through August period and persisting through the end of 2026.
What it means for the Americas
Whenever there is excessive surface heating of the Pacific Ocean, it tends to dump the excess moisture evaporating off the ocean into the middle of North and South America.
That is exactly what happened in the strong El Nino analog years of 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015, starting in spring and running through the summer months.
That could be a huge help for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop and could lead to a “moisture revival” in the drought-stricken regions of the U.S. Plains.
Burnett agrees with Snodgrass that there is a tendency for the U.S. to be wetter, which could boost corn, soybean and wheat yields in that country, depending on when El Nino arrives.
“It is suggesting one of the strongest El Nino events on record, which will likely top the 1982 and 1997 events.”
Eric Snodgrass
Nutrien Ag Solutions
However, Burnett believes it will be touch and go for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, which will be harvested in the next month or two.
“If (El Nino) is going to appear, it needs to appear damn fast,” he said.
Snodgrass said the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast is similar to the ECMWF forecast. The NMME model is forecasting a drier bias for most of the U.S. corn belt, although it does share the view that the Plains region should benefit from better moisture conditions.
Drought risk for Asia, Australia — and the Canadian trade implications
Burnett expects El Nino to have the biggest impact on countries surrounding the central Pacific where the waters are warming.
It could usher in “mega-drought” conditions for growers in Indonesia, India and parts of Australia.
Indonesia’s palm crop will likely be hurt, but it is a perennial crop, not an annual, so the impact on yields will be somewhat delayed.
In India, El Nino could reduce the southwest monsoon, which is active from June through September. That would hurt the rabi crop that goes in the ground following the end of the monsoon season. It would have no impact on the current rabi crop that is just starting to be harvested.
India can be a major importer or exporter of wheat at times, but it grows and consumes a different type of wheat than Canada produces.
However, India is one of the top importers of Canadian peas and lentils, and a poor rabi pulse harvest next year could boost sales of those two crops in the 2026-27 marketing year.
Australia is planting its winter wheat crop right now. A quick transition to El Nino could result in a dry winter and early spring in that country.
“That will definitely hurt production prospects,” said Burnett.
The ECMWF model also flags “bone dry” conditions for the North China Plain and Manchurian Plain. The NMME is not as aggressively dry for China but does call for notably drier conditions in the European Union and the Black Sea region.
