Latest articles


Bad weather forecasts? Blame the leaky bucket

Spring and fall are always the most difficult seasons to forecast weather in as things change quickly

I think I need to begin this article with an apology for the fairly dismal forecasts that I’ve been making this past couple of weeks. It is at times like this that I really appreciate the fact that I don’t have to create a forecast every day — especially at this time of the year! […] Read more


Forecast: A first taste of winter

Issued November 5, 2018: Covering the period from November 7 to November 14

Last week’s forecast did not play out very well. While high pressure did try to build in it wasn’t nearly as strong as expected. Combine this with the several areas of low pressure that were forecasted actually tracking by to our south, and we ended up with more clouds than sunshine. One bright spot was […] Read more



A look at our backwards October – November weather

Mother Nature seemed a bit mixed up at the start of the month, but eventually figured it out

Well, what can we say about October’s weather across the Canadian Prairies? I guess if I had to quickly describe it, I would say it was a backwards month. The month of October started off like it was the middle of November, with cold temperatures and snow. A large portion of the Prairies reported measurable […] Read more


Forecast: Seasonable weather start to November

Issued October 29, 2018: Covering the period from November 1 to November 6

Last week’s forecast played out pretty well, with only slight differences in the timing of the systems impacting the weather. For this forecast period, it looks like the fairly nice fall weather is going to continue, with temperatures fluctuating between slightly below average to a little above average. For those regions that are still needing […] Read more



Just how does snow form?

There are a number of interesting things that happen with low-temperature precipitation

With an October that felt more like November and the type of questions I had to answer this past couple of weeks, I thought it might be a good time to revisit the topic of snow. It’s time we went back to weather school to look at the process that creates precipitation in cold clouds, […] Read more


Forecast: Warm-cool weather cycle to persist

Issued October 22, 2018: Covering the period from October 24 to October 31

We definitely saw a return of warm and sunny weather this last forecast period. All the right conditions came together last Thursday to bring record-breaking temperatures across much of southern and central Manitoba. While the warm weather only lasted a day before cooler weather moved back in on Friday and Saturday, Sunday did see a […] Read more



Is there still a chance for that last bit of summer?

A strong ridge of high pressure in mid- to late October could carry in some incredible weather

With a rather brutal and gloomy start to fall across the Prairies, and conditions often feeling more like winter than summer, I’ve begun to hear more people talk about the return of unseasonable heat that’s called St. Martin’s summer in the U.K., second summer and other terms now outdated in North America. Some of the […] Read more


Forecast: Sunny and milder weather returning

Issued October 15, 2018: Covering the period from October 17 to October 24

For the first time in a while, the forecast played out pretty close to what was expected, and there is finally some hope on the horizon that we’ll see an end to the month-long period of cool, wet weather in which we’ve been stuck. For this forecast period, it looks as though we may actually […] Read more



Snow falling on the farm

Is our October snowfall a predictor of winter?

In winters following October snows, the odds favour near- to above-average precipitation

With what seems to be an early attempt by winter at moving in, I am already beginning to hear people talking about just what this means for the upcoming winter. One of the biggest questions I hear is, “When are we going to get snow that will stay?” or, “I hear the normal time to […] Read more


Forecast: A few more days of gloomy weather

Issued October 8, 2018: Covering the period from October 10 to October 17

This time all of the ingredients for the first measurable snowfall of the season came together, bringing anywhere from a light accumulation of snow to upward of five to eight cm. It then looked like we were going to see a major rain or snow event late last weekend and into the first half of […] Read more