Issued May 21, 2018: Covering the period from May 23 to May 30, 2018
My weather forecasts seem to be starting off the same every week now. Last week’s forecast was nearly bang on, except for a little more rain over eastern regions last Friday. For this forecast period, it is going to feel more like mid-summer rather than late spring. While the hot weather will not help those […] Read more
When conditions are in place, we have a watch; when storms happen, we have a warning
As spring begins to transition into summer, I like to revisit what I find to be one of the most interesting weather topics: thunderstorms. As temperatures begin to climb and moisture (hopefully) begins to flow northward, the ingredients come together to develop thunderstorms. So far this year we haven’t seen much thunderstorm activity, but as […] Read more
Issued May 14, 2018: Covering the period from May 16 to May 23, 2018
Last week again played out about as close to what was forecast as could be expected. The biggest issue with the forecast was the very cold overnight lows we saw late last week. Cold temperatures were predicted, but the extreme overnight lows were a result of very dry air along with very dry surface conditions […] Read more
Agricultural Manitoba is going into seeding with below-average precipitation in the bank
After a dry to very dry winter and spring across agricultural Manitoba, there comes a time when we have to begin talking about the dreaded “D” word: drought. Looking up some definitions of drought, here is what I have found: In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended […] Read more
Issued May 7, 2018: Covering the period from May 9 to May 16, 2018
Overall, the weather models did a good job with last week’s forecast. There was a little more wind than expected (bad), but temperatures over the weekend and into the first part of this week were warmer than forecast (good). For this forecast period we’ll start with two areas of low pressure influencing our region. The […] Read more
Issued April 30, 2018: Covering the period from May 2 to May 9, 2018
Once again, the weather models have been doing a bang-up job with the forecast. The western low developed as predicted over the weekend and we definitely saw warm and windy weather move in — maybe a little too windy in some places. The only deviation from the forecast was the track of the western low […] Read more
Issued April 23, 2018: Covering the period from April 25 to May 2, 2018
The only problem with last week’s forecast was that temperatures ended up being warmer than forecasted. Otherwise, everything played out very close to what the weather models predicted; it’s actually almost scary how accurate the weather models have been lately. If the weather models continue to be accurate, it looks like we will see another […] Read more
This spinning pile of cold air at the top of our planet is trying to sag southward
One of the questions I have been asked several times over the last couple of weeks is: Just what is causing this outbreak of cold air we have been dealing with across the Prairies? Then, usually, added on to the end of the question is: If global warming is real, then why are we so […] Read more
Issued April 16, 2018: Covering the period from April 18 to April 25, 2018
The slow warming trend looks to continue during this forecast period. Last week’s forecast turned out pretty close to what the weather models predicted. The major storm system forecast for last weekend did develop, and it did stay well to our south, bringing heavy snow to parts of South Dakota and Minnesota and leaving our […] Read more
In two years where Manitoba saw cold early Aprils, warmer-than-average summers followed
There is just no way around it: the first week of April was bitterly cold. We are talking January-and-February cold. To put it into perspective, Table 1 (further down) shows the average maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the first seven days of April. I’ve also included the long-term averages for this period in brackets. […] Read more
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