Your Reading List

Forecast: A return to seasonable weather

Issued October 23, 2017: Covering the period from October 25 to November 1

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies as a departure from average for the 30 days ending Oct. 19. This has been a much wetter period across the Prairies, but significant areas have remained dry. Across Manitoba, eastern and southwestern regions have between five and 25 mm more precipitation than average, while south-central and northwestern regions remained dry.

After a week of unusual fall weather across our region, this forecast period looks to be a little more seasonable. Luckily for us, in last week’s forecast the colder air that was to move in late last weekend didn’t really materialize, and warmer-than-expected temperatures carried over into the first half of this week.

The main area of focus in the early part of this forecast period will be on an area of low pressure that is supposed to track across North Dakota late on Wednesday and during the day Thursday. It looks like most of the precipitation will be in the form of showers or periods of light rain overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. As cold air moves in behind the low on Thursday, we could see a brief transition to snow before the system moves off to the east. Temperatures on Thursday will be on the cold side, with highs only expected to be a few degrees above 0 C and overnight lows by Friday morning expected to be in the -5 to -8 C range.

It looks like we’ll see a short warmup over the weekend as an area of low pressure developing to our west helps to pull up some milder air. This low is then forecast to track through north-central regions of Manitoba on Sunday. Most of the precipitation from this system should stay well to our north, but we may see some flurries late on Sunday or early Monday as the low drops a cold front through our region. Temperatures look to be on the cool side to begin next week, with daytime highs expected to be in the 3 to 5 C range and overnight lows around -5 C.

The active weather pattern looks to continue, as another area of low pressure is forecast to track from the northwest during the middle of the week. The exact track and timing of this low will determine whether this system will bring mostly rain or snow. Right now, it’s looking more like this system will bring a few centimetres of wet snow.

Looking further ahead, the weather models point toward cooler conditions to end the month.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 1 to 13 C; lows, -9 to +2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications