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Forecast: Warm with a chance of storms

Covering the period from July 15 to July 22

This weather graphic shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across agricultural Manitoba from May 1 through July 5. You can easily see the two heavy rain events that impacted Manitoba during this period. The first event hit southeastern regions in early June and again in early July. The second region, from Brandon north to Riding Mountain, experienced record-setting rains during the last few days of June.

Once again, the weather models did an OK job with the last forecast. What’s fairly typical in the summer is that the timing of systems ended up drifting off by several days.

For this forecast period, the weather models show a large area of low pressure — an upper low — slowly drifting across the north-central Prairies. This low will bring a mix of sun and clouds from July 15 to 17, with occasional afternoon showers or thundershowers, especially over central regions. Daytime highs will be pleasant, with most regions in the 24 to 27 C range and overnight lows falling to around 16 C.

Over the weekend (July 18 to 19), the weather models show a slack flow across our regions that should result in sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds and temperatures pushing into the upper 20s during the day and mid- to upper teens at night.

The weather models then show a couple of weak areas of low pressure kicking out of the southwest and tracking across the southern and central Prairies from July 20 to 23. This will bring most regions a mix of sun and clouds, along with a good chance of afternoon and evening thundershowers. Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side, with daytime highs in the mid-20s and possibly warmer depending on the sunshine. With the heat and instability from the lows, a few stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Looking further ahead, the weather models show a continuation of warm to hot weather, with only the occasional shot of precipitation in the form of afternoon and evening thundershowers.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 12 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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