Forecast: Warm with a chance of storms

Covering the period from July 8 to July 15

This weather graphic shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30 days ending July 1 — typically the wettest 30-day period of the year. You can see it was a wet period across the majority of the Prairies, with most regions receiving at least 75 to 100 mm and several areas reporting more than 150 mm.

The weather models got the heat and humidity correct with last week’s forecast; what they missed was the western boundary of the hot, humid air. That boundary ended up being a little farther east than forecasted, which resulted in unsettled conditions that dominated the weather over western Manitoba and led to some historic rain events.

For this forecast period, it looks like we will get a little break from the heat and humidity as the ridge of high pressure over eastern Manitoba and Ontario breaks down, allowing for a more zonal flow across central North America. This also means we should get a break from the heavy thunderstorms as well, but that is never a guarantee in the summer.

To begin this forecast period, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure across North Dakota, with a trough of low pressure extending to the north. This will bring a mix of sun and clouds across southern and central regions with the odd shower or thundershower. Daytime highs should be in the mid- to upper 20s with overnight lows in the mid-teens. Over the weekend the models show an area of low pressure moving up from Montana and pushing quickly into northern Manitoba by late Saturday or Sunday. Ahead of this system we could see some stronger thunderstorms develop, with the best chances for storms over western regions.

It does not look like we will see much of a cool-down behind the weekend low as a second area of low pressure begins to organize itself to our southwest. Winds will become southerly, once again, to start off the week of July 13 and we will also once again see heat and humidity build across the region. We will likely see scattered thunderstorms as the low pushes through around mid-week. Looking further ahead, the weather models show the ridge of high pressure rebuilding across central North America, meaning more hot weather ahead.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 10 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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