Forecast: Warm temps and a relatively dry spell ahead

Covering the period from September 23 to 30

This map shows the June to August global temperatures, which ended up being the third highest on record. There were very few areas that were slightly cooler than average. Most of the map is light to dark red, representing areas that saw above-average to record-warm temperatures.

Well, last week’s forecast was a little hit and miss. The cool high pressure that was forecast to be sitting to our north early in the forecast period dropped farther south than expected, bringing much cooler weather than expected. By the weekend, though, we did see the forecasted building ridge of high pressure that brought a return to warmer temperatures. For the first half of this week, the low expected to track to our south ended up being much weaker and tracked to our north. Oh, the troubles with forecasting in the transition months!

For this forecast period, it looks like we will be in a pretty good stretch of nice fall weather. Looking at the big picture, the stormy season has come a little early to the Gulf of Alaska as the weather models show several strong storm systems spinning up over that region in the next couple of weeks. These deep areas of low pressure will help to develop ridging over our part of the world, giving us a southwesterly to westerly flow. Within this flow there will be a few areas of low pressure riding over the ridge, which may bring us the odd showery, cooler day.

After a nice warm start to this forecast period, with daytime highs right around 20 C and lows in the 5 to 8 C range, the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking through our region over the weekend. Expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies along with the chance of some showers. Temperatures will cool down for a day or two once the low passes, with highs dropping down into the lower teens.

For the start of next week (Sept. 28-30), the weather models show sunny to partly cloudy skies as high pressure slowly rebuilds across our region. Daytime highs look to slowly work their way back up toward the 20 C mark with the chance of even some mid-20s by late in the week. Not too bad, considering the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year is 22 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 12 to 22 C; lows, 1 to 10 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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