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Forecast: Warm and relatively dry weather ahead

Covering the period from September 16 to 23

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies over the 30 days ending Sept. 9 as a percentage of the long- term average. It was dry across much of Saskatchewan along with southern and northwestern Alberta. Precipitation was near average along the northern edge of the agricultural Prairies along with much of central and eastern Manitoba. The wettest region was just northeast of Winnipeg.

Overall, last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models had predicted with the cold start and then sunny and mild conditions late last week and over the weekend. For this forecast period it looks like the cold air will be kept to our north, but as we slowly move deeper into fall this cold air will keep edging closer and closer.

To begin this forecast period, the weather model shows our region under a weak westerly flow with cool high pressure to our north and a large weak area of low pressure to our southwest. Under this pattern we will see sunny to partly cloudy skies, along with daytime high temperatures pushing into the upper teens to low 20s and overnight lows falling into mid-single digits. We could see the odd shower on Thursday as a weak system slides through, but confidence in this feature is not very high.

Over the weekend (Sept. 19-20), the models show a building ridge of high pressure across our region. This ridge should bring us plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures with daytime highs forecast to be in the low 20s and overnight lows within a few degrees of 10 C.

By Monday, Sept. 21, the weather models show the low to our southwest ejecting to the northeast. Currently, the weather models keep its track to our south, but a slight shift northward could bring showers or even some steady rain to extreme southern sections sometime late on Monday or into Tuesday morning. Behind this low we will see a slight cool-down on Wednesday before the models show a return to warm temperatures during the second half of the week. In fact, we could see high temperatures pushing into the upper 20s by the weekend, but that is still a long way off.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 13 to 23 C; lows: 2 to 11 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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