Forecast: Nice winter weather expected

Issued January 22, 2018: Covering the period from January 24 to January 31

This map shows the global temperature percentiles for 2017. The one thing that immediately jumps out is the fact that the map does not show any region that experienced much cooler-than-average temperatures during 2017.

The first half of last week’s forecast was pretty good as mild Pacific air flooded in from the west and northwest, bringing near-record to record highs across much of southern and central Manitoba. The forecast area of low pressure that was expected to track through the Dakotas last Monday ended up tracking much farther south. While this didn’t have any direct impact on us, this shift in the general flow kept the forecast cold arctic high from dropping south.

This forecast period will begin with pleasant winter weather, with weak arctic high pressure sitting to our northeast and a large Pacific low slowly working its way west. This means once again, we will be stuck between systems. This will result in cloudy to partly cloudy days with daytime highs expected to be in the -6 to -10 C range and overnight lows in the -14 to -18 C range.

By Friday, what is left of the Pacific low is expected to move across the Dakotas, spreading an area of snow into our region. Current weather models predict around three to five cm of snow from this system. This low is expected to move quickly to the east, with a weak area of arctic high pressure settling in over the weekend. This high should bring mainly sunny skies along with slightly cooler temperatures, with highs expected to be around -15 C and overnight lows in the -25 C range.

For next week, the weather models show a second Pacific low pushing on shore. This low is forecast to track through the central and northern Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday. This track will keep most of the precipitation from this low to our north. Southern and central regions will likely see clouds, a few flurries and mild temperatures as the low pulls warm air northward. Expect daytime highs near the freezing mark, with overnight lows around -10 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -21 to -6 C; lows, -33 to -16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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