Forecast: Cool — or should I say cold — weather expected

Covering the period from October 14 to October 21

This map shows the global temperature anomalies for the lower 12 km of the troposphere as determined by satellite measurements. As we look across North America and Canada, we see it was very warm across far western regions with cooler-than-average temperatures centred around Hudson Bay. Globally, the heat continued across much of Europe and a large part of Russia.

Looking back at last week’s weather outlook, it did a surprisingly good job, with the major features only being off by a day or so. We saw nice mild weather move in for the first part of the long weekend, before cooler air moved in late in the weekend and into the early part of this week.

In this forecast period, it looks like we are going to see seasonable to even colder-than-average temperatures as the large area of low pressure, which tracked across northern Manitoba last weekend bringing the mild temperatures, stalls out over far northern Manitoba. The counter-clockwise circulation around this low will allow cool arctic air to push southward all week. This will result in daytime highs struggling to make it to 10 C with overnight lows falling into the -5 C range. Most days will begin sunny, but with the cold air and sunshine we will see afternoon clouds and the odd shower or even flurry depending on the timing of any precipitation.

Over the weekend, the northern low is forecast to move off to the southeast, into northern Ontario. This will help pull down some of the coldest air of the season. Forecasted highs are only expected to be around +5 C, with overnight lows pushing -8 to -10 C, which is below the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. If we are going to see any light snow it would be over the weekend, but any amount should be minimal.

To start off next week (Oct. 19-21), it looks like we will see a warming trend as a ridge of high pressure builds ahead of a developing area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. Expect sunny skies, south to southwesterly winds, and daytime highs slowly warming back towards the 10 C mark.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 6 to 18 C; lows, -4 to +6 C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 30 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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