Well, we definitely saw the cold northwesterly flow develop last week that allowed cool arctic air to drop southeastward, bringing the first good blast of fall weather. At least we did not see any snow, or at least I did not hear about any. The weather models did a good job calling for that cooldown, and if anything, it ended up being a little colder than originally forecast.
For this forecast period it looks like we will see a slow warming trend as an area of low pressure is forecast to track across the northern Prairies from Oct. 8 to 10. Ahead of this low we will see southerly winds that will help to push temperatures into the upper teens by Friday, Oct. 9. Once the low tracks by and moves off to the east on Saturday, our winds will become northerly and temperatures will cool down a little bit as an arctic high nudges southward.
This cool down is forecasted to be short-lived as the arctic high quickly moves off into eastern Ontario. As the high drifts eastward, we should see an upper ridge build and push into our region from the west on Sunday and Monday, allowing temperatures to rebound back into the upper teens and making for a nice second half to the Thanksgiving long weekend.
The upper ridge is then forecast to break down sometime between Monday, Oct. 12 and Wednesday, Oct. 14 as a strong area of low pressure tracks across southern Nunavut. While we will see temperatures cool down during this period, the models are not predicting a strong push of cold air. Daytime highs are forecast to be around the 10 to 12 C mark with overnight lows within a degree or two of freezing. As the colder air moves in, we may see the odd shower late on Monday or Tuesday.
Looking a little further ahead, the weather models show seasonable temperatures followed by a strong warming trend near the end of the week.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 8 to 19 C; lows, -2 to +7 C.