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Weather Vane

Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Mild conditions expected to dominate

Issued October 9, 2017: Covering the period from October 11 to October 18

By
The first half of last week’s forecast played out as expected. Fortunately, the second half didn’t materialize, thanks to a northward shift in the overall pattern. Spring and fall tend to be the toughest times to forecast the weather as the atmosphere begins its transition between summer and winter weather patterns, and we saw this
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Big change in the weather coming next week?

Issued October 3, 2017: Covering the period from October 4 to October 11

By
Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what weather models predicted. The biggest differences were the widespread light frost on Thursday morning and the showers/light rain last Sunday afternoon over eastern regions. This forecast period will begin with seasonably cool conditions as a weak high pressure builds in from the west behind a departing
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Mild and dry weather returns

Issued September 25, 2017: Covering the period from September 27 to October 4

By
Over the last week or so we saw our first period of unsettled wet weather in a long time. The forecasted system brought some late-season thunderstorms to several regions late last Friday. We then saw another area of light rainfall move through on Sunday. This second system was forecast to stay well to our south,
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Expect more unsettled but mild weather

Issued September 18, 2017: Covering the period from September 20 to 27

By
The first part of last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models predicted. The main area of low pressure and the associated rainfall moved through our region late last Friday. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, the main rainfall stayed to our south and east, with most areas seeing between
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Continued warm, but wetter

Issued September 11, 2017: Covering the period from September 13 to 20

By
The weather models were surprisingly accurate over the last week or two, thanks in part to a fairly persistent ridge of high pressure. For this forecast period it looks like we will see a shift in our overall weather pattern. The question is whether this will be a temporary shift or a more permanent one.
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Little taste of fall, then back to summer

Issued September 1, 2017: Covering the period from September 6 to 13

By
Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models had predicted. For this forecast period, confidence levels are not very high due to an earlier-than-usual deadline because of the long weekend. That said, the weather models have been fairly consistent with their predictions over the last couple of days, with only the
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Temperatures overall remaining warm

Issued August 28, 2017: Covering the period from August 30 to September 6

By
Last week’s forecast quickly fell apart as two small but significant upper lows travelled across our region. The second of these upper lows moved through last Wednesday and brought with it some very cool temperatures. By Thursday morning temperatures in some localities dropped very close to the freezing point, giving us the first taste of
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Warm and dry to start; cooler next week?

Issued August 21, 2017: Covering the period from August 23 to August 30

By
Last week’s forecast — at least the first part — wasn’t too bad, but things kind of fell apart on Sunday and into the first part of this week. I had pointed out that confidence in that part of the forecast was low. The disappointing part for some people was the weak system that came
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Warm weather to build back in

Issued August 14, 2017: Covering the period from August 16 to August 23

By
Even though I had to create the forecast early last week I was still able to pull off a reasonably accurate one. I would love to take full credit for that, but sometimes you just get lucky. After all, I am just reading weather models and trying to pick which models are doing the best
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Slow warming trend expected

Issued August 4, 2017: Covering the period from August 9 to August 18

By
Last week’s forecast quickly fell apart, at least from the point of view of temperature, as the upper low that brought some much-needed rain to western regions also altered the upper-level flow. The upper low combined with the building ridge of high pressure over extreme western North America shifted our flow from west-northwesterly to more

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