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Forecast: Continued warm, but wetter

Issued September 11, 2017: Covering the period from September 13 to 20

This map shows the moisture conditions in the top 30 cm of the soil across agricultural Manitoba as of Sept. 5. Most regions are reporting dry conditions, with a few very dry locations. We will watch to see how much of an impact the predicted rainfall for this week will have.

The weather models were surprisingly accurate over the last week or two, thanks in part to a fairly persistent ridge of high pressure. For this forecast period it looks like we will see a shift in our overall weather pattern. The question is whether this will be a temporary shift or a more permanent one.

This forecast begins with a large and relatively slow-moving area of low pressure, something we haven’t seen in a while. The general flow across our region over the last month or so has been out of the northwest, which has kept us fairly dry. This flow will now become southwesterly, which will help open the doors for some moisture to move into our region.

The weather models show a large area of low pressure developing to our southwest on Wednesday and then lifting northeast during the second half of the week. We’ll see increasing clouds on Thursday with a chance of showers and thundershowers developing in the afternoon. Most areas will likely see a continuation of showers on Friday as the main area of low pressure begins to move in. Currently, it looks like the best chance for measurable rainfall will be during the day on Friday and into Friday evening, as the main energy from the low pushes through. Temperatures, even with the cloud cover and showers, look to be mild, with highs expected to be around 20 C with overnight lows in the low teens.

Saturday will see a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of some more showers as we deal with the back side of the departing low. Things should clear out by Sunday as high pressure builds in. This area of high pressure will slowly slide to the east during the first half of next week, giving us some nice dry weather. Temperatures will start off cool on Sunday, but we will see temperatures warm up each day, with highs by Wednesday expected to be in the low to mid-20s.

Looking further ahead, the weather models are not showing any signs of a significant cool-down right through to the end of the month.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 13 to 24 C; lows, 2 to 11 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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