Forecast: Little taste of fall, then back to summer

Issued September 1, 2017: Covering the period from September 6 to 13

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during August as a per cent of average. A large portion of the Prairies saw below-average amounts. In Manitoba, the south-central region was the driest, with less than 40 per cent of average rainfall. There were a few locations in western Manitoba that saw near-average amounts due to thunderstorms.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models had predicted. For this forecast period, confidence levels are not very high due to an earlier-than-usual deadline because of the long weekend. That said, the weather models have been fairly consistent with their predictions over the last couple of days, with only the timing of features changing.

Most of this forecast period will be dominated by high pressure, which will mean a continuation of dry weather across our region. A large area of high pressure is forecast to build in from the northwest and be centred over Manitoba by Wednesday. The clockwise circulation around the high will place us in a cool northerly flow to begin this forecast period, with daytime highs expected to be in the upper teens to around 20 C, with overnight lows expected to be in the low single digits. As this high slides to our southwest we could see a few clouds move in on Thursday as a weak system passes by to our north.

Once this high moves off to our southeast, the circulation around the high will place us in a south-to-southwesterly flow. This will help to moderate our temperatures. Expect daytime highs to climb back into the mid-20s by the weekend. The weather models then show an area of low pressure developing to our west. The counterclockwise flow around the low, combined with the flow around the high, will help to pull up some very warm temperatures for early next week. We could see daytime highs pushing the 30 C mark during the first half of next week, before the western low pushes through. Once again, confidence in this part of the forecast is very low.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 25 C; lows, 4 to 12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications