Forecast: Warm and dry to start; cooler next week?

Issued August 21, 2017: Covering the period from August 23 to August 30

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the 90 days ending Aug. 17. The “wettest” regions have been along the northern edge of the agricultural Prairies, with the exception of northwestern Alberta.

Last week’s forecast — at least the first part — wasn’t too bad, but things kind of fell apart on Sunday and into the first part of this week. I had pointed out that confidence in that part of the forecast was low. The disappointing part for some people was the weak system that came through on Monday, bringing clouds and putting a damper on the eclipse.

For this forecast period we’ll see a ridge of high pressure rebuild across our region, bringing with it more sunny skies, light winds and dry weather. Wednesday looks to be the calmest day as the main area of high pressure will be directly over Manitoba. The high will then slowly drift off to the east on Thursday and Friday. At the same time a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over western and northwestern Canada and will begin to try and push eastward. This will slowly increase the pressure gradient across our region, a fancy way of saying it will start to get a little windy. Expect south winds to develop Thursday and strengthen Friday. These winds will help to boost temperatures, with daytime highs on Thursday and Friday expected to be in the mid- to upper 20s.

Over the weekend the weather models show some of the energy from the western low tracking across central and northern Manitoba. The best chance for showers and thundershowers will be on Saturday as a weak cold front moves through. Skies should clear out by Sunday. Temperatures will cool down a little bit, with daytime highs forecast to be in the low 20s and overnight lows in the upper single digits.

Once again the confidence in the forecast for next week is low. Currently, the weather models show a shift in our pattern. They predict the northern low that brought the cold front over the weekend will stall out near Hudson Bay. This would place us in a cooler north to northwesterly flow for much of next week. With surface high pressure in place it looks as if it will remain dry, but we should expect temperatures to feel a little more fall-like.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 18 to 28 C; lows, 5 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications