Forecast: Big change in the weather coming next week?

Issued October 3, 2017: Covering the period from October 4 to October 11

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30 days ending Sept. 28 as a percentage of
the long-term average. Drought conditions continued in Saskatchewan, with most areas seeing less than 60 per cent of average. These dry conditions were also found across much of southern and mid-eastern Alberta. The two wet regions during September were north-central Alberta along with much of agricultural Manitoba.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what weather models predicted. The biggest differences were the widespread light frost on Thursday morning and the showers/light rain last Sunday afternoon over eastern regions.

This forecast period will begin with seasonably cool conditions as a weak high pressure builds in from the west behind a departing area of low pressure over northern regions. Expect daytime highs in the low teens with overnight lows right around freezing. By Friday, this high will be moving off to our east, which will place us in a warm southerly flow on the back side of the high. Daytime highs for Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the upper teens to around 20 C, depending on the amount of sunshine.

Over the weekend the weather models show a large area of low pressure forming over northwestern Canada. This low is then forecast to move quickly to the southeast, bringing showers and possibly the first flurries of the season to southern and central Manitoba on Monday. Sunday looks like it will be the transition day, with strong westerly or northwesterly winds and falling temp­eratures.

This system should quickly pull off to the east by Tuesday. The weather models then show a fairly large area of arctic high pressure building southward behind the departing low starting on Wednesday. While confidence in this part of the forecast is low, if it does pan out we should expect to see much colder air move in for the second half of next week. Expect overnight lows to fall into the -5 to -8 C range, with daytime highs only recovering into the low single digits.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 8 to 19 C; lows, -2 to +7 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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