Forecast: Mild and dry weather returns

Issued September 25, 2017: Covering the period from September 27 to October 4

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the two weeks ending Sept. 21. It has been a fairly wet period across agricultural Manitoba, with most regions recording more than 35 mm. Add in the significant rains that occurred last weekend and it is ending up as a pretty wet month.

Over the last week or so we saw our first period of unsettled wet weather in a long time. The forecasted system brought some late-season thunderstorms to several regions late last Friday. We then saw another area of light rainfall move through on Sunday. This second system was forecast to stay well to our south, but a stronger-than-expected area of high pressure to our east forced the system to take a more northerly track.

For this forecast period, it looks like we are going to move back into a warm and dry pattern, which should help to dry things out a little bit. The weather models show an area of high pressure beginning to build across central North America starting on Wednesday. This high will be centred over Manitoba on Thursday, bringing sunny skies and light winds. We will see the coolest temperatures on Thursday morning with overnight lows in the 2 to 4 C range. At this point it doesn’t look like we will see widespread frost, but a few isolated areas may see some freezing temperatures.

The area of high pressure is then forecast to begin drifting off to the southeast on Friday. This will place us in the warm southerly flow on the back side of the high. Temperatures will warm up a little each day, with daytime highs expected to be in the upper teens to low 20s by Saturday. Late in the weekend, the models show a weak area of low pressure sliding through central regions, bringing some clouds along with the odd scattered shower.

Weak high pressure will build in once again early next week as an area of low pressure deepens to our west. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will continue to pull warm air into our region. Expect daytime highs to stay near the 20 C mark with overnight lows in the 7 to 10 C range. The western low is then forecast to track across the northern Prairies during the middle of the week. It currently looks like it will drag a cold front behind it, which will cool things down a little bit before warmer air moves back in during the second half of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 10 to 21 C; lows, -1 to +8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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