Forecast: Expect more unsettled but mild weather

Issued September 18, 2017: Covering the period from September 20 to 27

This map shows the total number of days with daytime temperatures above 30 C this summer. The map really shows how the heat over the summer was concentrated over southeastern Alberta along with southwestern Saskatchewan. Over these regions temperatures soared, with most locations recording over 25 days with highs above 30 C.

The first part of last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models predicted. The main area of low pressure and the associated rainfall moved through our region late last Friday. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, the main rainfall stayed to our south and east, with most areas seeing between 10 and 20 mm. The area of low pressure also took a bit longer to move out, resulting in a fairly blustery day last Sunday.

It looks like this forecast period will begin with more unsettled weather as a large and deep area of low pressure develops to our west. We’ll likely see showers and/or periods of rain on Wednesday as a warm front pushes through our region. The main area of low pressure will slowly move from the Alberta/Saskatchewan border on Wednesday, into northern Manitoba by Friday. This should place us in the warm sector of this system on Thursday and Friday. How warm it will be will depend on whether we see any sunshine. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper teens, with some low 20s if there is some sun.

The next chance for rain will be late on Friday or early Saturday, as a piece of energy rotates through our region around the main upper low to our north. Weak high pressure is then forecast to build in on Sunday and Monday, bringing with it clearing skies but cool temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the low teens with overnight lows in the 2 to 5 C range. It doesn’t look like there will be any widespread frost, but a few patchy areas of frost can’t be ruled out.

Dry weather looks like it will continue for most of next week as the weather models show the western ridge of high pressure rebuilding. Expect temperatures to warm up by a couple of degrees each day, with daytime highs pushing back into the low 20s by late in the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 12 to 22 C; lows, 1 to 10 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications