Forecast: Typical late-summer August weather

Covering the period from August 19 to 28, 2019

This map shows precipitation percentiles across the Prairies during the last half of the year ending Aug. 12. Three regions have been experiencing long-term dry conditions. The driest regions are found across central parts of agricultural Manitoba, southern Alberta and far-northern Alberta. The wettest regions are found across central Alberta and, to some degree, in south-central Saskatchewan.

Well, last issue’s forecast wasn’t too far off. We did see some clouds and showers move through our region last Thursday and Friday, but most regions ended up seeing more sun than clouds instead of the other way around.

This forecast period will begin with an area of low pressure slowly pulling off to our northeast. This is the low that brought some of the unsettled conditions over the weekend. We will see some cooler air move in behind this low on Monday and Tuesday along with a good chance of scattered afternoon clouds and maybe the odd shower. Daytime highs will be in the low 20s with overnight lows around the 10 C mark.

The overall flow will then become westerly during the middle of the week as weak high pressure builds in. Expect plenty of sunshine, with daytime highs in the mid-20s and overnight lows in the 12 to 14 C range.

Later in the week, the weather models show a couple of areas of low pressure developing. The first low is forecast to develop over central Alberta on Thursday and track toward northern Hudson Bay on Friday. Ahead of this low we will see a strong push of warm air from the south. Daytime highs are forecast to be close to 30 C. The low is forecast to drag a weak cold front across our region sometime Friday, bringing with it the chance of some thundershowers and slightly cooler temperatures.

Over the weekend the weather models show a second area of low pressure developing over Montana and then tracking northeastward across southern Manitoba. Currently, it looks like there will be a good chance of showers and thundershowers on Saturday as this system enters our area. The models then show the main area of low pressure pushing through on Sunday, bringing with it a good chance for measurable rainfall.

Looking further ahead, the weather models show an area of high pressure building in behind this weekend low, bringing a return to sunny skies and seasonable temperatures for Monday to Wednesday.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 18 to 28 C; lows, 7 to 13 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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