Forecast: Not much rain expected

Issued August 92019: Covering the period from August 13 to 21

This map shows the departure from average precipitation so far this growing season. Even with the recent rains, pretty much all of agricultural Manitoba has seen less-than-average rainfall. The driest area is the region stretching from just south of Lake Winnipeg to the northwest, all the way to the Saskatchewan border.

To start off this issue’s forecast I have a little explaining to do. Those of you who regularly follow my forecasts know I create them on Monday morning, and you end up seeing it a couple of days later. Well, due to changes in publishing, my new deadline is now three days earlier: Friday morning. What impact will this have? Well, I am going to have to experiment a little over the next month or so to see just how viable creating a five-day lead forecast works out. To begin with, I’ll have to be a little more vague on the exact timing of events.

This forecast period will start off with clouds and showers on Monday and Tuesday as an area of low pressure tracks by to our south and drags a trough of low pressure through southern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts don’t look to be too impressive, with a general five to 10 mm expected. High pressure is then forecast to build in around mid-week, bringing a return to sunny skies and seasonable summer temperatures. A second area of low pressure is forecast to track across the Dakotas on Thursday and Friday bringing more clouds than sun to southern regions along with the chance of some showers.

Over the weekend it looks like high pressure will build in once again, allowing skies to clear. Expect daytime highs over the weekend to be in the mid-20s with overnight lows in the low teens. A second area of high pressure looks to build into the region early next week, but between the two highs we may see a line of showers or thundershowers move through the region.

Looking a little further ahead, the weather models hint at a shot of much cooler air late next week as an area of low pressure drops southeast followed by an area of arctic high pressure. This is still a long way off, though, so I wouldn’t get too worried just yet.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 20 to 28 C; lows, 9 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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