Overall, the weather models did a good job with last week’s forecast. There was a little more wind than expected (bad), but temperatures over the weekend and into the first part of this week were warmer than forecast (good). For this forecast period we’ll start with two areas of low pressure influencing our region. The
Forecast: No significant rain expected
Issued May 7, 2018: Covering the period from May 9 to May 16, 2018
Forecast: Dry but less windy weather expected
Issued April 30, 2018: Covering the period from May 2 to May 9, 2018
Once again, the weather models have been doing a bang-up job with the forecast. The western low developed as predicted over the weekend and we definitely saw warm and windy weather move in — maybe a little too windy in some places. The only deviation from the forecast was the track of the western low
Forecast: Warm and dry weather expected
Issued April 23, 2018: Covering the period from April 25 to May 2, 2018
The only problem with last week’s forecast was that temperatures ended up being warmer than forecasted. Otherwise, everything played out very close to what the weather models predicted; it’s actually almost scary how accurate the weather models have been lately. If the weather models continue to be accurate, it looks like we will see another
Why has it been so cold lately?
This spinning pile of cold air at the top of our planet is trying to sag southward
One of the questions I have been asked several times over the last couple of weeks is: Just what is causing this outbreak of cold air we have been dealing with across the Prairies? Then, usually, added on to the end of the question is: If global warming is real, then why are we so
Forecast: Slow warming trend to continue
Issued April 16, 2018: Covering the period from April 18 to April 25, 2018
The slow warming trend looks to continue during this forecast period. Last week’s forecast turned out pretty close to what the weather models predicted. The major storm system forecast for last weekend did develop, and it did stay well to our south, bringing heavy snow to parts of South Dakota and Minnesota and leaving our
A record-cold start to April? Not quite
In two years where Manitoba saw cold early Aprils, warmer-than-average summers followed
There is just no way around it: the first week of April was bitterly cold. We are talking January-and-February cold. To put it into perspective, Table 1 (further down) shows the average maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the first seven days of April. I’ve also included the long-term averages for this period in brackets.
Forecast: It’ll be cold, but finally above zero
Issued April 9, 2018: Covering the period from April 11 to April 18, 2018
If you like lots of sunshine and don’t mind April temperatures closer to those usually found in February, then the last week has been perfect for you! If you are tired of the cold weather, then take heart — there are some signs of mild weather coming, it just might take a little while longer.
A cold March ends a cold winter
The main storm track may shift north, bringing more precipitation to Manitoba
Yet another month has come and gone, and for most of us across the Prairies, March 2018 was not one we really care to remember. After a warm start to 2018, which saw January temperatures running 1 to 3 C above the long-term average across all three Prairie provinces, the cold weather moved in for
Forecast: Well-below-average temperatures to continue
Issued April 2, 2018: Covering the period from April 4 to April 11, 2018
Unfortunately, last week’s forecast was nearly bang on as we experienced a late-season outbreak of cold arctic air. The cold air, combined with fairly strong winds, resulted in rather miserable conditions for early April. The only positive was the sunshine, and if you could get out of the wind it actually did not feel that
Forecast: Well-below-average temperatures expected
Issued March 26, 2018: Covering the period from March 28 to April 4, 2018
The first part of last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models predicted, with the main difference being how the various lows ended up tracking. For this forecast period, I hope the weather models are wrong, because it looks like we are going to begin April with a bit of a