Forecast: Well-below-average temperatures expected

Issued March 26, 2018: Covering the period from March 28 to April 4, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the extended winter (Nov. 1 to March 22) compared to the long-term average. It was a dry winter across much of southern and central Manitoba, with several regions seeing very-low to exceptionally low amounts. The only “wet” parts of agricultural Manitoba were found in its extreme northwest.

The first part of last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models predicted, with the main difference being how the various lows ended up tracking. For this forecast period, I hope the weather models are wrong, because it looks like we are going to begin April with a bit of a return to more winter-like temperatures.

This forecast period leads off with a weak area of low pressure tracking through central Manitoba. This low will bring clouds along with some light snow over central regions and a mix of sun and clouds over southern regions together with the odd flurry. Wednesday looks like it will be the only day during this forecast period that will see near-average temperatures as a large ridge of arctic high pressure begins to build southward, beginning Thursday.

This ridge, combined with a large trough of low pressure, is then forecast to stall out across Hudson Bay, which will place us in a persistently cold northwesterly to northerly flow for the remainder of this forecast period. It looks like the arctic high will keep us mostly sunny from Thursday to Sunday. Temperatures will be cold, and are expected to be near or even below the usual temperature range for this time of year. Even with the warm spring sunshine it will feel pretty cold as winds are expected to be in the 10-20 km/h range.

The cold weather looks like it will continue well into next week. The first arctic high will slide off to our southeast on Sunday, only to be replaced by a second arctic high Monday and Tuesday. As this high builds into our region, expect the pressure gradient to tighten up as the Hudson Bay trough drops a little southward. This will result in windy conditions, making it feel extremely cold. Winds should become light by next Wednesday. Combine this with plenty of sunshine and while it will still be cold, it should feel fairly nice.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -4 to +8 C; lows, -16 to -3 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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