Forecast: Well-below-average temperatures to continue

Issued April 2, 2018: Covering the period from April 4 to April 11, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far in 2018 as a percentage of the long-term average. It has been a dry start to the year across most of agricultural Manitoba and north-central Alberta. Elsewhere, precipitation has been near to above average.

Unfortunately, last week’s forecast was nearly bang on as we experienced a late-season outbreak of cold arctic air. The cold air, combined with fairly strong winds, resulted in rather miserable conditions for early April. The only positive was the sunshine, and if you could get out of the wind it actually did not feel that bad.

This forecast period looks much like the last one. The polar vortex is forecast to continue spinning and wobbling around Hudson Bay, which will help send reinforcing shots of cold arctic air southward. We should expect mainly sunny skies to start off, with daytime highs struggling to make it to the -5 to -10 C range. Overnight lows will continue to be chilly, with some locations seeing lows as cold as -20 C. There will be some slow moderating of temperatures during this period as the strong spring sunshine slowly warms the cold arctic air.

The one positive aspect of the strong cold high pressure is that it has so far kept the major storm systems to our south. As spring wears on and the heat builds to our south, the storm track will begin to be forced northward. The current weather models show a storm system moving in off the Pacific on Saturday, and then quickly tracking along the international border on Sunday and Monday. Confidence in the track of this system is low, but there is a small possibility of accumulating snow late on Sunday and into Monday across extreme southern regions. Farther north, expect to see clouds along with the odd flurry.

Cold high pressure is then forecast to slide in behind this low, keeping temperatures across our region well below average. Looking further ahead, the weather models show a couple more chances for snow or rain later next week and into the following weekend.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +1 to +13 C; lows, -11 to +2 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications