Forecast: No significant rain expected

Issued May 7, 2018: Covering the period from May 9 to May 16, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing season as a percentage of the long-term average. You can quickly see that it has been a dry start to the growing season across a large portion of the Prairies.

Overall, the weather models did a good job with last week’s forecast. There was a little more wind than expected (bad), but temperatures over the weekend and into the first part of this week were warmer than forecast (good).

For this forecast period we’ll start with two areas of low pressure influencing our region. The first low will slide by to our south, bringing some much-needed rains to North Dakota. Extreme southern regions might see the odd shower from this system. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs near 20 C, a little warmer or cooler depending on the cloud cover. A second area of low pressure will pass by well to our north. This low will drag a cold front across our region late Wednesday or early Thursday. This front may trigger the odd shower or maybe even a thundershower, depending on the timing, but rainfall amounts look to be low.

Behind the front we’ll see a cool arctic high drop southward, bringing with it sunny but cool weather to end the week. Expect daytime highs in the 12 to 15 C range, with overnight lows around the 0 C mark. The main area of high pressure will quickly slide off to the east over the weekend, but a ridge of high pressure stretching from this eastern high to a stationary high over the northern Prairies will help to maintain sunny skies along with warming temperatures. Daytime highs will moderate towards the low 20s by Sunday, and it looks like the ridge will keep any significant precipitation well to our south.

Sunny skies and near-seasonable temperatures look to continue into the first part of next week before the ridge of high pressure breaks down. This will allow Pacific energy to move across the Prairies beginning around mid-week. Right now, it doesn’t look like we’ll see much in the way of precipitation from this system, but a few light showers can’t be ruled out as the low passes by during the second half of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 11 to 25 C; lows, -1 to +9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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