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Forecast: Warm and dry weather expected

Issued April 23, 2018: Covering the period from April 25 to May 2, 2018

This graph shows the predicted global average surface temperatures (blue) and observed temperatures (black), expressed in departures from the 1850-1900 average, based on MOHC data. The model used to predict future temperatures was used to reconstruct past temperatures based on prevailing ocean conditions at five-year starting points from 1960 onward (red shading, with the confidence range shown) and was able to do a fairly good job. The green band shows temperature reconstructions and predictions from 22 weather model runs.

The only problem with last week’s forecast was that temperatures ended up being warmer than forecasted. Otherwise, everything played out very close to what the weather models predicted; it’s actually almost scary how accurate the weather models have been lately.

If the weather models continue to be accurate, it looks like we will see another week of dry and relatively warm temperatures. Combine this with some windy conditions, and we will continue to see very good drying conditions. To start off this forecast period, we will see an area of low pressure tracking southeastward out of northern Manitoba. This low will drag a trough and an associated cold front across southern and central regions late on Wednesday and into early Thursday. Expect clouds along with the odd shower or flurry depending on the timing of the cold front. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday as high pressure builds in from the north, bringing windy conditions. This cool down looks to be short lived as warm westerly winds kick in on Friday, pushing daytime highs back up into the upper teens.

Over the weekend and into the first half of next week our weather is going to be controlled by a large slow-moving area of low pressure forecast to develop to our west. As this area of low pressure deepens over the weekend, southerly winds ahead of it will strengthen across our region, helping to boost daytime highs into the low 20s. Winds will become quite strong on Sunday and Monday as the low slowly tries to push eastward. We may see the odd shower late on Sunday and into Monday as a warm front pushes north ahead of the low.

Early next week, the weather models show the western low weakening as it tracks to our north. We will see slightly cooler air work its way in behind the low by Tuesday, with daytime highs dropping into the mid-teens and overnight lows a couple of degrees above 0 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 7 to 20 C; lows: -3 to +6 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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