Forecast: Slow warming trend to continue

Issued April 16, 2018: Covering the period from April 18 to April 25, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the last half of March and first half of April, compared to the long-term average. You can quickly see it has been dry across eastern regions, with conditions getting progressively wetter as we move westward into Alberta.

The slow warming trend looks to continue during this forecast period. Last week’s forecast turned out pretty close to what the weather models predicted. The major storm system forecast for last weekend did develop, and it did stay well to our south, bringing heavy snow to parts of South Dakota and Minnesota and leaving our region with mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures.

For this forecast period, it looks like we’ll continue to dodge any major storm systems, meaning plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures. On Wednesday, the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking through South Dakota with a trough extending northward into Saskatchewan. This will bring some clouds along with the chance of some flurries over western regions. The trough is forecast to weaken as it pushes eastward, resulting in only a mix of sun and clouds for eastern regions.

High pressure will then move in on Thursday, bringing with it plenty of sunshine along with milder temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the +8 C range, with overnight lows around -2 C. The next storm system is forecast to move in from the Pacific over the weekend and track across the north-central Prairies late in the weekend and into Monday. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will help to pull milder air into our region over the weekend, with forecast daytime highs finally making it into the double digits. Expect highs in the low teens, with overnight lows around the 0 C mark. Central regions will likely see clouds along with the odd shower late Sunday and into Monday, while southern regions will see partly cloudy skies.

High pressure will build back into our region early next week, resulting in a continuation of mainly sunny skies and temperatures slowly working their way toward the upper end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 5 to 17 C; lows, -6 to +4 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications