Forecast: Mild, quiet weather moving back in

Covering the period from January 22 to January 29

This map shows the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this winter (Nov. 1 to Jan. 15) as a per cent of average. Central and eastern regions of the Prairies have seen a dry winter, with a large area reporting less than 60 per cent of average. Over Alberta it has been a little wetter, with most areas reporting amounts in the 85-150 per cent of average range.

The first half of my last forecast unfolded close to what was expected, with a few minor exceptions. The cold arctic air did move in and luckily it was only a brief encounter as the centre of the cold air remained well to our west. With the centre of the cold air staying farther west than expected, the forecasted Colorado low last weekend was able to push a little farther north, bringing blustery conditions to parts of southern and eastern regions.

For this forecast period, it looks like we will see a return to mild and relatively dry conditions. The weather models show an area of low pressure tracking across the southern Arctic from Wednesday through Friday. This low will allow for mild Pacific air to move in, bringing temperatures near the high end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. On Friday or Saturday, once the northern low passes by, a weak arctic high will slide by to our northeast, bringing with it slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend.

For the second half of this forecast period it looks like we will see a repeat of the first half. Another low is forecast to track across the southern Arctic once again allowing mild Pacific air to flood into our region. Once this low passes by, arctic high pressure will try to slide southward, but the core of the cold air looks as if it will stay to our northeast and east, keeping our region relatively mild. Expect daytime highs in the -10 C range with overnight lows around -18 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -22 to -6 C; lows, -31 to -15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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