Forecast: Pleasant spring weather ahead

Issued May 15, 2017 – Covering the period from May 17 to May 24, 2017

The introductions to my forecasts are beginning to sound a bit like a broken record: Last week’s forecast didn’t turn out exactly as predicted… The first part of last week’s forecast played out pretty well. We did end up in a rather cool northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere, while a strong upper low to

Back to thunderstorm school — lesson two

Thunderstorms are often associated with a hot day, but that’s not the only ingredient required for them to form

It seems that Mother Nature is letting winter have one last hurrah, but that doesn’t mean that thunderstorm season is too far off. So for this issue we’ll continue our annual look at what is arguably one of the most fascinating weather phenomena we see in our part of the world. I always like to


USA, Oregon, Cannon beach

El Niño conditions are developing in the Pacific

We know La Niña and El Niño both have an effect on weather — but predicting it is still a real challenge

El Niño conditions are developing across the Pacific with an increasing probability that a full-fledged El Niño episode will occur during the second half of 2017. Pacific equatorial winds have slackened since the start of the year and a characteristic tongue of warm water has begun to form stretching from Peru towards the international dateline.

Forecast: Pleasant spring weather ahead

Issued May 8, 2017 – Covering the period from May 10 to May 17, 2017

Last week’s forecast didn’t turn out exactly as predicted, but it wasn’t due to a lack of trying by Mother Nature. The broad area of low pressure formed to our west as predicted and we did see some low to even mid-20s for highs late last week. Then a weak cold front moved through our


Forecast: Warm weather returning with a vengeance?

Issued May 1, 2017 – Covering the period from May 3 to May 10, 2017

Last week’s storm system was a bust, as it slid farther east than expected and therefore, for the most part, only impacted the extreme southeastern portion of our province. The wraparound cloud did keep areas east of the Red River Valley on the cloudy side until last Friday, while western regions received mostly sunshine. By

Forecast: Very slow return towards warmer weather

Issued April 24, 2017 – Covering the period from April 26 to May 3, 2017

Once again it seems that the writing of my forecast coincides with a possible major storm system. I write my forecasts late on Sunday or early on Monday and you see it Wednesday. For this forecast period, whether some regions saw significant snowfall on Monday will have an impact on temperatures until at least Friday.


Thunderstorms: Starting with the basics

Let’s first look at how the energy from the sun gets back up into the skies

With temperatures slowly starting to heat up across the Prairies, thoughts turn towards summer and summer weather, and in my case, I begin thinking about thunderstorms. After a very active summer last year, I thought it might be time to start looking at this topic again. I also thought it would be a good idea

Forecast: No big warm-up before end of month

Issued April 17, 2017 – Covering the period from April 19 to April 26, 2017

Last week’s forecast once again turned out to be pretty good. A strong area of low pressure did form late last week and tracked through the north-central Prairie provinces over the weekend. Southern regions ended up seeing nicer-than-expected weather last Friday and Saturday, but a small fairly strong upper-level system brought some unwanted rain early


Forecast: Low confidence in weather models

Issued April 10, 2017 – Covering the period from April 12 to April 19, 2017

Surprisingly, last week’s forecast turned out to be pretty good, despite the inconsistencies in the weather models. I think the biggest problem with the forecast was the timing of the cold front that swept through the region over the week. After a nice warm day Saturday, the cold front, which was originally forecast to move

Forecast: Warmest temperatures of the year expected

Issued April 3, 2017 – Covering the period from April 5 to April 12, 2017

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Spring is often the toughest time to try and forecast the weather, and this year is no exception. The overall pattern for last week’s forecast played out as expected, but missed out on most of the details as the timing and placement of major weather systems