The introductions to my forecasts are beginning to sound a bit like a broken record: Last week’s forecast didn’t turn out exactly as predicted…
The first part of last week’s forecast played out pretty well. We did end up in a rather cool northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere, while a strong upper low to our west kept us in a fairly strong easterly flow at the surface. This resulted in cooler-than-average temperatures (especially over eastern regions) at the beginning of last week’s forecast, with milder air moving in over the weekend.
The start of this week is where the weather models fell apart. The arctic high ended up pushing much farther east and as a result, a southern low forecast to pass by well to our south was able to take a much more northerly route.
Looking to the second half of this week and into the May long weekend, the weather models are once again struggling to come to a consensus. Currently, it looks like the early-week storm system will be followed by a fairly strong area of arctic high pressure. This will bring fairly cold air into our region for Thursday and Friday. Expect daytime highs only in the low teens, with overnight lows probably falling below 0 C in any of the frost-prone areas.
Over the weekend this high should slowly slide to the east, allowing our winds to become more southerly. This, combined with the strong late-spring sunshine, should allow temperatures to recover back toward the low 20s by Saturday or Sunday. Sunny and mild weather should continue into Victoria Day along with what looks to be light winds.
This pleasant spring weather should continue into the first part of next week. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to slide through central Manitoba sometime on Tuesday. This system will likely bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the slight chance of a shower or thundershower.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 13 to 26 C; lows, 1 to 10 C.