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Forecast: No big warm-up before end of month

Issued April 17, 2017 – Covering the period from April 19 to April 26, 2017

Last week’s forecast once again turned out to be pretty good. A strong area of low pressure did form late last week and tracked through the north-central Prairie provinces over the weekend. Southern regions ended up seeing nicer-than-expected weather last Friday and Saturday, but a small fairly strong upper-level system brought some unwanted rain early on Sunday.

For this forecast period it looks like we will be mostly dry as the main storm track stays to our south. A strong area of low pressure will track through South Dakota on Wednesday and Thursday and indications are that all of the rainfall from this system will remain well to our south.

The weather models are then developing a pattern that has us squeezed between arctic high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south and west. The first arctic high is forecasted to slide by over the weekend. At the same time, an area of low pressure is forecast to form over Alberta and move southeastward into North Dakota on Saturday. Currently, the weather models show this low quickly weakening as it moves into our region, so we should only expect a few showers or flurries depending on the exact timing of this system. Expect temperatures to be a little on the cool side with daytime highs around +10 C and overnight lows near 0 C.

This pattern looks to repeat itself during the first half of next week. A fairly strong area of arctic high pressure will slide through northern Manitoba while an area of low pressure tracks through the Dakotas. Confidence in the track of this system is low, with the latest weather model keeping most of the precipitation just to our south. Temperatures look to remain near to slightly below average with no big warm-ups expected before the end of the month.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 6 to 18 C; lows: -5 to +5 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.


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