I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Spring is often the toughest time to try and forecast the weather, and this year is no exception. The overall pattern for last week’s forecast played out as expected, but missed out on most of the details as the timing and placement of major weather systems quickly deviated from what was forecast.
This forecast period should begin with sunshine on Wednesday as a weak area of arctic high pressure builds in from the north. This high will bring slightly cooler air with it and even with strong spring sunshine, highs will likely only climb into the mid-single digits. This high will quickly slide to our south on Thursday and Friday. At the same time a broad area of low pressure will be slowly organizing to our west. Together these two features will combine to produce a warm southerly flow across our region. We should see temperatures warm by several degrees each day, with highs by the weekend pushing the mid- to upper teens.
The split upper-level flow looks to continue over the weekend with the western low splitting into two features. The northern low is expected to track across north-central Manitoba on Sunday, bringing showers to northern regions and a mix of sun and clouds to southern regions. Temperatures should start off mild on Sunday before a cold front gets dragged through sometime late in the day.
The weather models then hint at a change in our current split flow pattern for next week. It now looks as if the northern stream will become dominant, placing us in a northwesterly flow. A fairly large area of arctic high pressure is forecast to drop southeastward during the first half of next week. While this high should bring plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be quite cool, with daytime highs only expected to be in the +2 to +5 C range and overnight lows in the -4 to -7 C range. On the positive side, it looks like the winds will be on the light side, so it shouldn’t feel too bad.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +1 to +13 C; lows, -10 to +2 C.