GFM Network News


Comment: Global economy hit by severest shock since 1930s

Fast policy response necessary to reduce impact of secondary rounds

Reuters – Recessions often start with a small drop in activity which then progressively deepens over subsequent months as the second- and higher-round effects on the economy start to occur. But the current business cycle downturn looks very different. In terms of its scale and sudden onset, there is no parallel since the end of

Opinion: U.S. and China stumble into Thucydides Trap

The United States and China have fired the opening shots in a trade war that may be hard to stop. The United States has appeared eager to impose tariffs to create leverage and force China into concessions on the bilateral trade deficit, intellectual property protection and forced technology transfer. For its part, China has appeared


El Niño conditions are developing in the Pacific

We know La Niña and El Niño both have an effect on weather — but predicting it is still a real challenge

El Niño conditions are developing across the Pacific with an increasing probability that a full-fledged El Niño episode will occur during the second half of 2017. Pacific equatorial winds have slackened since the start of the year and a characteristic tongue of warm water has begun to form stretching from Peru towards the international dateline.

Kemp: Commodity markets will go dark if U.S. shutdown continues

If the U.S. government shutdown continues for more than a few days, commodity markets will find themselves flying blind, as the public servants responsible for producing statistics on which traders and investors rely are sent home. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said Tuesday it will not publish the commitments of traders and other market

Price bubbles and commodity markets

Athoughtful new paper from researchers at the University of Illinois marks a significant step forward in research on how commodity futures prices are formed. Until recently, the academic and policy debate about futures price formation has been locked in an acrimonious and polarized standoff between market fundamentalists, who insist all price moves reflect supply-and-demand fundamentals,


Giving clean energy an affordable makeover

Political will to tackle climate change by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, never very strong, has all but disappeared across much of North America and Western Europe in the last 12 months. Climate concerns have fallen victim to the recession, with fears about jobs, growth and the cost of switching to clean energy undermining support for

Lower Grain Price And Fuel Prices Needed

Sharp declines in prices for grains and gasoline will be the most effective stimulus for renewed growth, by easing the squeeze on household finances across North America and Western Europe, but only if price cuts can be sustained. Relative declines in prices for food, clothing and fuel have been one of the big drivers of

Mind The Global Output Gap

Escalating food and fuel prices are a sign the global economy is approaching full resource utilization and the limits of sustainable output. Policy-makers, commentators and investors are still fiercely debating whether high unemployment and idle factories in the United States and Europe are caused by cyclical lack of demand (in which case Keynesian demand management


Crisis remakes the commodity business

Only the brave or the foolish would make predictions about the future amid the biggest market upheaval in three generations. But it is already clear the crisis is profoundly reshaping the commodity trading industry. The mix of intermediaries, customers and financial resources are all being substantially redrawn. So here are some tentative thoughts on how