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Forecast: Warm weather returning with a vengeance?

Issued May 1, 2017 – Covering the period from May 3 to May 10, 2017

Last week’s storm system was a bust, as it slid farther east than expected and therefore, for the most part, only impacted the extreme southeastern portion of our province. The wraparound cloud did keep areas east of the Red River Valley on the cloudy side until last Friday, while western regions received mostly sunshine. By the weekend, spring weather returned in earnest. Now the question is whether it will stick around.

This forecast period carries a fair bit more confidence with it than those of the last month or so. The main storm track looks to stay well away from our region as once again a split flow develops across central North America. This should keep us on the mild and dry side overall.

Our forecast begins with a weak area of low pressure trying to move in from Saskatchewan. The weather models show this system weakening as it pushes in, bringing only a few clouds and maybe the odd late-afternoon shower on Wednesday or Thursday. The overall pattern then begins a shift during the latter part of the week as a broad area of low pressure begins to develop across the western U.S. This low will create a wide area of southerly winds ahead of it, pumping plenty of warm air in our direction late in the week and into the weekend.

Currently, it looks like we should see plenty of sunshine along with daytime highs approaching and possibly exceeding the 20 C mark by the weekend. The mild flow looks to continue into the following week, with the weather models showing daytime highs approaching the mid-20s by late next week. We could see the odd thundershower early next week as a weak area of low pressure tracks through North Dakota, although confidence in this feature is low at this time.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 9 to 24 C; lows, -2 to +8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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