Every year around this time I get a lot of questions asking when we should expect the first snowfall or when I expect that winter will begin. So, while this article was supposed to continue our look at atmospheric oscillations — and in particular, jet streams — I felt we could afford to take a
When should we expect winter to start?
If winter as we know it begins before or after these dates, call it an unusual year
Forecast: Seasonable with a chance of snow
Forecast issued Nov. 13, 2020, covering the period from Nov. 18 to 25, 2020
Forecast issued Nov. 13, 2020, covering the period from Nov. 18 to 25, 2020
Due to a missed deadline last week (life got a little away from me) I can’t really discuss how good or bad the forecast was (it was really good, trust me). For this forecast period, overall confidence is not that high, which is not that unusual for this time of the year. As the atmosphere
Forecast: Seasonable with a chance of snow
Forecast issued Nov. 6, 2020, covering the period from Nov. 11 to 18, 2020
Once again, last week’s forecast did a pretty good job with the major weather features. We saw a nice warmup last week with a few locations breaking record highs last Tuesday and Wednesday. Then the weather models predicted a storm system over the weekend, and as I write this on Friday, it looks like that
After October’s way-off forecast, what’s ahead?
A battle between cold and warm air is trying to take shape over this region
At the end of last month, I said, “I cannot believe another month has come and gone,” and I really can’t find different words now that October is over. I can’t speak for anyone on this, except myself, but it has been a tough last couple of months. For those of you who don’t know,
Forecast: Mild start to week, then stormy?
Covering the period from October 29 to November 11
Last week’s forecast played out better than what meets the eye. We saw sunny to partly cloudy skies with high temperatures near the freezing mark before the weekend. Over the weekend, the low that was forecast to cut across the Dakotas ended up much farther north. This system tracked through central Manitoba instead, bringing clouds,
Weather school: Oscillations and acronyms
If Rossby wave patterns were predictable, weather would be easy to predict
Before diving into this issue’s topic, I just wanted to pipe in about the recent snowfall across a large portion of southern Manitoba and the predictions that were being made by at least a couple of weather personalities. These predictions were that the snow would likely stick around since the forecast was for continued cold
Forecast: Colder-than-average temperatures ahead
Covering the period from October 28 to November 4
The first part of the last issue’s forecast turned out pretty good, as the strong northwesterly flow established itself dropping temperatures into the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. The models were holding firm about a big warm-up by the end of the month, but now it is looking like that warm-up will be not
Weather school: Globs of cold air and Rossby waves
The Weather Network expects a cold December, at least in our neighbour states
In the last issue we started to examine why our part of the world has such changeable weather. We looked at general global circulation patterns, then examined the zone where westerly winds bump up against easterly moving polar winds, creating giant eddies of swirling air. This week we are going to continue our look at these swirling eddies
Forecast: Cold with slight chance of snow
Covering the period from October 21 to October 28
Once again, the weather models did a pretty good job with the medium-range forecast. The northern Manitoba low stalled out as forecast, and we saw the resulting surge of cold air push southward, bringing an abrupt end to the seasonable fall temperatures. The only thing the weather models got wrong was that the daytime highs ended up being a little cooler
Weather school: Eddies in a stream and forecasting
Regions where northeasterly winds meet westerly winds are where eddies form
For this article, it’s time to get back to weather school, where we’ll take a closer look at just why we are subject to chaotic storm systems that make forecasting our weather a real challenge, especially in the fall and springtime. Before we dig our way into this topic, here’s a quick look at September’s