Forecast: Colder-than-average temperatures ahead

Covering the period from October 28 to November 4

This map shows the amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies as a per cent of the long-term average over the 30-day period ending on October 21. Looking at the map you can see that most of the central Prairies has seen very little precipitation during this period. Most of the precipitation fell to our south and in the north, where values were near to above average.

The first part of the last issue’s forecast turned out pretty good, as the strong northwesterly flow established itself dropping temperatures into the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. The models were holding firm about a big warm-up by the end of the month, but now it is looking like that warm-up will be not as strong as first thought.

With that said, here’s how it looks like the general weather pattern will play out over this forecast period. The strong deep trough of low pressure that had established itself over eastern North America is forecasted to weaken, allowing the general flow across Canada to become more westerly than northwesterly. This will allow milder air to flood eastward from the Pacific, pushing temperatures back up toward more seasonable averages.

Looking at some of the details, this forecast period will start off with a chance of flurries or showers as a weak area of low-pressure tracks through the southern Prairies. High pressure is then forecast to build in on Thursday and Friday with light winds, sunny to partly cloudy skies and daytime highs around +2 C, with overnight lows around -8 C.

Over the weekend the weather models show an area of low pressure developing to our southwest and then pushing through the Dakotas. This low has a chance of bringing some light snow to southern regions on Saturday before quickly pushing off to the east. By Sunday it looks like any snow that might fall will quickly melt, as daytime highs are forecast to be in the +2 to + 5 C range. These mild temperatures look to last through the early part of next week. The only fly in the ointment is if this area of low pressure ends up being stronger than expected, which would result in more snow and colder temperatures.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 1 to 13 C; lows, -9 to +2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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