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Forecast: Mild start to week, then stormy?

Covering the period from October 29 to November 11

This map shows the amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies as a departure from the long-term average over the 30 days ending Oct. 28. Most of the Prairies has seen little precipitation during this period, with the driest region located over central agricultural Manitoba.

Last week’s forecast played out better than what meets the eye. We saw sunny to partly cloudy skies with high temperatures near the freezing mark before the weekend. Over the weekend, the low that was forecast to cut across the Dakotas ended up much farther north. This system tracked through central Manitoba instead, bringing clouds, winds, some light rain and even snow to some regions. The timing of this system held back the push of warm air by a day or two, with nice mild temperatures working their way into our region to start this week.

This forecast period begins with well-above-average temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region and quickly flattens and shifts off to the east. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, as a weak area of low pressure moving across northern regions helps to boost the push of warm air from the south. Forecasted daytime highs range from the mid- to upper teens near the U.S. border to around 10 C in the Interlake. Cooler air will work southward behind the northern low on Thursday and Friday, dropping daytime highs back down into the low single digits.

Things then turn interesting over the weekend as a storm system may impact our region. The weather models have been struggling with this part of the forecast, which is not unusual. At first the models were showing an extremely strong area of low pressure bringing rain, snow, high winds and even the chance of thunderstorms to our region starting late on Saturday and lasting until Monday. Lately, the weather models have been pulling back with a much weaker system. This just means we need to keep an eye on next weekend’s weather. Chances are we won’t see a big storm, but it is that time of the year.

Looking further ahead, it looks like mild temperatures will prevail, at least until the middle of the month. Maybe the long-range forecasts are right this time?

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -3 to +9 C; lows, -12 to 0 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 60 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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