Not that this summer’s weather was very predictable, but fall and spring tend to be notorious periods for accurate forecasting. During these periods, the atmosphere is changing due to the rapid shift in incoming solar radiation (that is, sunlight). We saw this over the last forecast period, as a western low developed as expected, but the track and timing of the spinoff lows from this system varied from those expectations.
For this forecast period, it looks like things are going to settle down a little bit, with no significant lows or highs affecting our region. Sometimes this type of pattern can be difficult to figure out, as weak systems not predicted by the weather models can impact the forecast. We’ll begin with a departing area of low pressure to our northeast. A cool and unsettled northerly flow behind this low will bring a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday and Thursday, along with near- to slightly below-average temperatures. Low pressure tracking across the northern Prairies on Friday and Saturday, along with a weak building ridge of high pressure to our south, will help to boost temperatures to end the week and start the weekend. Expect daytime highs to be around the 10 C mark, with overnight lows in the low single digits.
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Temperatures will cool down a bit on Sunday as a cold front drops southward behind the northern low. Weak high pressure will build in briefly on Monday before an area of low pressure tracks through southern and central Manitoba on Tuesday. Confidence in this system is fairly low, but right now it looks like the system will bring showers to central regions, with some accumulating rain over southern sections.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +4 to 15 C; lows, -6 to +4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 40 per cent.
