Forecast: Expect a shift in weather pattern

Covering the period from December 9 to December 16

It wasn’t surprising that the weather models did such a good job predicting last week’s early-winter heat wave. The models had been consistently showing this happening for a while and they are usually correct when it comes to large weather features like this. For this forecast period, it looks like the weather pattern is going

Forecast: Mild early-winter weather continues

Covering the period from December 2 to December 9

Once again, the weather models did a fairly good job forecasting the general weather pattern across our region over the last week. Whenever we are dealing with weak weather systems it can be tough to get the timing right, but in those instances, being off by 12 to 24 hours when there are only light


Forecast: Mild, with not much snow expected

Covering the period from November 25 to December 2

Despite not a lot of confidence in last issue’s forecast, the weather models actually did a pretty darned good job. We saw the mild temperatures early in the period followed by the slight cool-down. The models were then showing milder temperatures moving in for the first half of this week, with the chance of a

Forecast: Seasonable with a chance of snow

Forecast: Seasonable with a chance of snow

Forecast issued Nov. 13, 2020, covering the period from Nov. 18 to 25, 2020

Forecast issued Nov. 13, 2020, covering the period from Nov. 18 to 25, 2020

Due to a missed deadline last week (life got a little away from me) I can’t really discuss how good or bad the forecast was (it was really good, trust me). For this forecast period, overall confidence is not that high, which is not that unusual for this time of the year. As the atmosphere


Forecast: Mild start to week, then stormy?

Covering the period from October 29 to November 11

Last week’s forecast played out better than what meets the eye. We saw sunny to partly cloudy skies with high temperatures near the freezing mark before the weekend. Over the weekend, the low that was forecast to cut across the Dakotas ended up much farther north. This system tracked through central Manitoba instead, bringing clouds,

Forecast: Colder-than-average temperatures ahead

Covering the period from October 28 to November 4

The first part of the last issue’s forecast turned out pretty good, as the strong northwesterly flow established itself dropping temperatures into the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. The models were holding firm about a big warm-up by the end of the month, but now it is looking like that warm-up will be not


Forecast: Cold with slight chance of snow

Covering the period from October 21 to October 28

Once again, the weather models did a pretty good job with the medium-range forecast. The northern Manitoba low stalled out as forecast, and we saw the resulting surge of cold air push southward, bringing an abrupt end to the seasonable fall temperatures. The only thing the weather models got wrong was that the daytime highs ended up being a little cooler



Forecast: Let’s ride the temperature rollercoaster

Covering the period from October 7 to October 14

Well, we definitely saw the cold northwesterly flow develop last week that allowed cool arctic air to drop southeastward, bringing the first good blast of fall weather. At least we did not see any snow, or at least I did not hear about any. The weather models did a good job calling for that cooldown,

Forecast: Manitoba sliding into fall weather

Covering the period from September 30 to October 7

Last week’s forecast was pretty spot on for the first half, but things started to fall apart over the last few days. To give the weather models some credit, they stuck to their forecast of warm weather during the first half of the week for a long time before a last-minute switch, thanks to weaker-than-expected