Weather: Watch for warming trend late in this period

Forecast issued April 30, 2021, covering the period from May 5 to 12, 2021

Well, the last forecast period was definitely a temperature roller coaster, or maybe temperature yo-yo might be a better description: 20 C one day, then struggling to make it to +5 C the next. That’s spring for you! Overall, last issue’s forecast was pretty good, but as usual, the timing of systems drifted the further

Weather: Spring, summer battle it out

Forecast covering the period from April 28 to May 5

After an extremely bad forecast a couple of issues ago, my last forecast did surprisingly well. For this forecast it looks like the temperature rollercoaster will continue, but as we move further into spring the warm spells will be getting warmer and the cold snaps a little less cold. This forecast period will begin with


Weather: A cooler pattern settling in

Forecast covering the period from April 21 to April 28

If you’re going to fail, then fail spectacularly. That’s what happened with the last forecast. Thanks to the retrograding upper low that impacted our region for most of the week of April 12-16, the forecast fell apart as the atmosphere underwent a shift to a much cooler pattern. The question is, just how long will

Weather: Cool start, then milder temperatures

Forecast covering the period from April 14 to April 21

Well, the last forecast turned out to be partially correct, but as usual, little changes can be amplified over time. We saw the area of low pressure push by to our south and east last Thursday and Friday, bringing clouds and some showers a little farther into eastern regions than originally expected. Then, colder and


Weather: Potential for early-spring heat

Forecast covering the period from April 7 to April 14

My last forecast turned out to be surprisingly accurate considering all the uncertainty behind it. We did see the late-March storm system that brought snow to central and northern regions, but only a dusting across most southern regions. Cold weather slid in behind this system, but as forecasted, mild weather returned by the end of

Weather: Chances for precipitation slipping away

Forecast covering the period from March 31 to April 6

The last forecast did not really play out as predicted by the weather models, but that’s not too surprising for this time of the year. There is a lot of uncertainty once again for this forecast period as the models jump around with their forecasts trying to get a grip on the transition from winter


Weather: Plenty of chances for precipitation

Forecast covering the period from March 24 to March 31

Last week’s forecast was a little hit and miss. It did OK with the general weather pattern but was off a little bit on the timing of systems and the temperatures. I should have realized that temperatures would be warmer than expected with the lack of snow cover across a large portion of the southern

Weather: Winter-to-spring transitioning ahead

Forecast covering the period from March 17 to March 24

Well, last week’s storm system kind of hit us. Those of you north of a line roughly from Brandon to Hecla Island saw snowfall, with amounts as high as 15 cm. Areas to the south and east of this line saw rain, with amounts generally around five mm. Since the low did not end up as a big


Weather: An unsure start to this forecast period

Covering the period from March 10 to March 17

I am in a tough spot with this issue’s forecast. For those who do not know, my forecast deadline is the Friday before you receive the print edition of the Co-operator. That means I must really trust the weather models over the five-day period from when I write this forecast to when you read it.

Forecast: Spring weather is trying to move in

Covering the period from March 3 to March 10

Once again, the weather models did a pretty good job over the last seven to 10 days. I think I should point out that when I say “weather models,” I am referring to the fact that I look at the different models and combine each, sometimes using what one model predicts, other times ignoring one