Weather: Chances for precipitation slipping away

Forecast covering the period from March 31 to April 6

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30-day period ending March 24. We’re starting to run out of ways to show how dry it has been. Most areas here saw less than 10 mm. The only wet area to be found is in far- northeastern Alberta.

The last forecast did not really play out as predicted by the weather models, but that’s not too surprising for this time of the year. There is a lot of uncertainty once again for this forecast period as the models jump around with their forecasts trying to get a grip on the transition from winter to summer. What makes it even more difficult is the early loss of the snowpack, which can throw a bit of a wrench into the models.

To begin this forecast period, we must once again deal with a potential storm system. As I write this, the weather models show a strong area of low pressure pushing into our region from the west on Tuesday (March 30). It looks like most of the snow from this system will fall in central and northern regions of Manitoba, though a southward shift could bring snow to all regions. Either way, colder air will move in behind this system on Wednesday and Thursday — the extent of which will be determined by the amount of snow cover.

By late Thursday or early Friday, we should see a return to milder temperatures as an area of low pressure tracks across the northern Prairies and pulls mild air northward. Expect daytime highs to rise from near to below freezing on Wednesday into the low to mid-teens by Friday or Saturday. Over the weekend we could see the odd shower as a weak area of low pressure zips through southern regions.

For the first full week of April, the weather models show seasonable temperatures early in the week as an area of arctic high pressure drifts by to our north. The models then show a strong trough of low pressure forming to our west. If this develops it could pull some very mild air into our region by the end of the week and result in daytime highs possibly pushing into the low 20s.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -4 to +8 C; lows, -16 to -4 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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