Weather: Potential for early-spring heat

Forecast covering the period from April 7 to April 14

Over the weekend the models are predicting a ridge of high pressure building to our west.

My last forecast turned out to be surprisingly accurate considering all the uncertainty behind it. We did see the late-March storm system that brought snow to central and northern regions, but only a dusting across most southern regions. Cold weather slid in behind this system, but as forecasted, mild weather returned by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Once again for this forecast period there is a fair bit of uncertainty. The weather models seem to be trying to figure out how to handle our current conditions as they are jumping around from near-average to even slightly below-average temperatures in one model run to well-above-average temperatures a couple of runs later. Here is the big picture as I write this. The models show this forecast period beginning with mild weather and a chance of rain across extreme-southern regions as an area of low-pressure tracks across the Dakotas. The models have been having a tough time with this system but if we go with persistence, it will likely stay to our south and east. As with most areas of low pressure the counter-clockwise rotation around the low will bring cooler air into our region on Thursday and Friday.

Over the weekend the models are predicting a ridge of high pressure building to our west. This should bring plenty of sunshine along with mild temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid-teens with overnight lows around the freezing mark. The biggest question mark with this forecast period is what will happen for the week of April 12-16? The models are hinting at the western ridge building and pushing eastwards. If this happens, expect very mild temperatures with daytime highs making it into the low to even mid-20s. That said, since it is still early spring do not be surprised if this ridge doesn’t materialize and we end up with much cooler temperatures.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: +12 to 0 C; Lows: -11 to 1 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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