Weather: Watch for warming trend late in this period

Forecast issued April 30, 2021, covering the period from May 5 to 12, 2021

This issue’s map shows percentages of soil moisture as of April 26. A large portion of the agricultural Prairies is experiencing very low amounts of soil moisture, with red regions reporting less than 40 per cent of average.

Well, the last forecast period was definitely a temperature roller coaster, or maybe temperature yo-yo might be a better description: 20 C one day, then struggling to make it to +5 C the next. That’s spring for you! Overall, last issue’s forecast was pretty good, but as usual, the timing of systems drifted the further into the forecast we went.

For this forecast period, it looks like we will continue to see a bit of a back-and-forth between warm and cool weather before what looks to be a stronger push of mild weather moves in around the middle of the month. To start us off, the weather models show a cool pool of air pushing off to the east and a developing area of low pressure to our west. This will allow for milder air to move in on Wednesday and Thursday before the low is forecast to track by to our south on Friday and Saturday (May 7-8). The best chance for precipitation is across far southern regions and it looks like any precipitation will fall as rain.

The counterclockwise rotation around this low will pull the cool air that moved off to our east back into our region to begin the week of May 10. Expect to see partly cloudy skies with cool temperatures and daytime highs only reaching around 10 C, with overnight lows dropping to around -4 C. This cool air mass will begin to slide off to the east by the middle of the week, allowing mild air to push in from the west. With this push of mild air, we should see mostly sunny skies, with daytime highs warming to around 20 C by late in the week and overnight lows dropping to around 5 C. There are a couple of hints for some showers late in this forecast period, but that is a long way off.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 9 to 23 C; lows, -2 to +8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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