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Weather: Spring, summer battle it out

Forecast covering the period from April 28 to May 5

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell over the Prairies within this agricultural year (September up to April 21) as a percentage of average. Recent snowfalls across some regions have not put a dent into widespread drought conditions, with large areas of the Prairies reporting less than 60 per cent of average precipitation.

After an extremely bad forecast a couple of issues ago, my last forecast did surprisingly well. For this forecast it looks like the temperature rollercoaster will continue, but as we move further into spring the warm spells will be getting warmer and the cold snaps a little less cold.

This forecast period will begin with the region seeing clearing skies behind an area of low pressure that impacted southern areas on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain on the cool side as an area of arctic high pressure drifts eastward across northern Manitoba. Expect daytime highs in the 5 to 8 C range with overnight lows dropping to around -5 C. With cool air and strong spring sunshine we can expect to see some afternoon clouds along with a few scattered flurries or showers.

Temperatures then look to warm rapidly on Thursday and Friday as an area of low pressure develops over central Alberta and then tracks eastward across the north-central Prairies by Saturday. Expect daytime highs to warm into the upper teens to low 20s by Friday. Over the weekend a cold front will slide southward, bringing with it some clouds along with the chance of showers or flurries depending on the timing of the front. The exact timing of this front is a little unsure; the best bet is that it will track through sometime on Sunday.

Cool arctic high pressure will drop in to begin the first week of May, bringing with it clear skies and cool temperatures. Expect daytime highs to drop down into the upper single digits with overnight lows falling a little below 0 C. Luckily, it looks like this cooldown will be short-lived as warm air quickly moves back in around midweek and daytime highs climb back to around 20 C by Wednesday or Thursday.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 7 to 20 C; lows, -4 to +6 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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