Forecast: Warming up and drying out

Last week’s forecast turned out not too bad considering the extra lead time. Even the short-term forecasts struggled with the cool air late last week and while the first low didn’t kick northwards last Friday, the main low was still forecasted to bring significant rainfall chances to most of southern and central Manitoba last weekend

This map shows precipitation percentiles across the Prairies during the last half of the year ending Aug. 12. Three regions have been experiencing long-term dry conditions. The driest regions are found across central parts of agricultural Manitoba, southern Alberta and far-northern Alberta. The wettest regions are found across central Alberta and, to some degree, in south-central Saskatchewan.

Prairie rainfall: Too much and too little

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of big weather stories currently going on in our part of the world, but is that really true? Sure, the weather overall this summer has been fairly quiet, with no massive storms or heat waves, but there has been a weather story that has been slowly building and


Forecast: Typical late-summer August weather

Covering the period from August 19 to 28, 2019

Well, last issue’s forecast wasn’t too far off. We did see some clouds and showers move through our region last Thursday and Friday, but most regions ended up seeing more sun than clouds instead of the other way around. This forecast period will begin with an area of low pressure slowly pulling off to our

For the record, July was a hot month once again

For the record, July was a hot month once again

What are we likely to experience, a warm or cool long-range forecast?

I guess I’ll begin with an apology for not being able to provide a new article for last week’s issue of the Co-operator. I was off exploring the wilds of Vancouver Island after competing in the Whistler half Ironman. I knew cellphone and data coverage was going to be tough on the Island, especially when


Forecast: Not much rain expected

Issued August 92019: Covering the period from August 13 to 21

To start off this issue’s forecast I have a little explaining to do. Those of you who regularly follow my forecasts know I create them on Monday morning, and you end up seeing it a couple of days later. Well, due to changes in publishing, my new deadline is now three days earlier: Friday morning.

Cirrus clouds are those high wispy clouds that often look like they have been stretched or blown out into long streamers — what are often referred to as “mares’ tails.”

What’s the name of that cloud high up in the sky?

A quick look at how various types of clouds are named and classified

Our current method of naming and classifying clouds was developed in 1803 by Luke Howard, an English naturalist. His system employed Latin words to describe the clouds as they appear from the ground. Clouds that appeared to look like sheets were called stratus, which is Latin for layer. Puffy clouds were called cumulus, which is


Forecast: Warm long weekend, then a short cool-down early next week

Issued July 29, 2019: Covering the period from July 31 to August 7

The first half of last week’s forecast played out as expected, but things deviated a little during the second half. The unsettled weather forecasted for the early part of this week consolidated into a stronger system that pushed through late last weekend. Because the system was stronger and pushed through all at once, we ended

Cold clouds will usually have a combination of ice crystals and super-cooled water, the first step in the process of creating precipitation in cold clouds.

Why cold clouds are the main source of summer rains

Even in the heat of summer the unique processes of cold clouds are important

If you missed my last article, we looked at how precipitation forms in warm clouds, after all it is the middle of summer. With the warm summer temperatures one might assume that most of our precipitation would come from warm clouds at this time of year, but in reality, most of our summertime precipitation comes


Forecast: Nice mid-summer weather on tap

Issued July 22, 2019: Covering the period from July 24 to July 31

While the weather models may not be bang on with their forecasts, they have been doing a pretty darned good job with the big-weather picture. We saw this once again during the last forecast period which saw plenty of active weather during the first half followed by dry, sunny, warm weather in the second half.

To turn into a raindrop, our little droplet would have to make a lot of collisions, as a typical raindrop is about one million times larger than a typical cloud droplet.

Most clouds don’t produce rain

The typical raindrop has to travel for about five to 20 minutes to reach your field

Originally, I was going to discuss the drought that has been impacting central and eastern parts of Manitoba, but thanks to some significant rains over the last week, the drought conditions, at least for the short term, have been alleviated. The rainfall did get me thinking about precipitation in general, so I dug back to