Forecast: Nice mid-summer weather on tap

Issued July 22, 2019: Covering the period from July 24 to July 31

This map shows the 30-day per cent of average precipitation ending on July 18. Looking at the map it is quickly apparent that overall, conditions have been fairly wet. The majority of Alberta, nearly all of Saskatchewan, and a good portion of Manitoba saw near- to above-average amounts. The only dry regions were south-central Alberta, far northern Alberta and a few locations in central Manitoba.

While the weather models may not be bang on with their forecasts, they have been doing a pretty darned good job with the big-weather picture. We saw this once again during the last forecast period which saw plenty of active weather during the first half followed by dry, sunny, warm weather in the second half.

It looks as though the dry and warm weather will continue for most of this forecast period. The predicted upper ridge of high pressure will bring plenty of sunshine along with daytime highs in the upper twenties to low thirties. Overnight lows are forecasted to be in the mid-teens, which will help to cool things off a bit. A weak area of low pressure is forecasted to ride over top of the upper ridge on Thursday, which may bring partly cloudy skies along with the chance of the odd thundershower.

This low will move off to the east by Friday, bringing a return to mainly sunny skies that should last right through the weekend. Thursday’s low will flatten the upper ridge, keeping the warmest air to our south. This will result in us seeing nice mid-summer temperatures over the weekend, with daytime highs expected to be in the 25 to 28 C range and overnight lows in the 14 to 17 C range.

Things may become a little unsettled to start next week as the weather models are showing several weak areas of low pressure rotating through our region. Right now, it looks as though we’ll likely see partly cloudy skies along with the chance of the odd shower or thundershower on Monday and Tuesday.

There is a chance for more organized thunderstorms late on Tuesday or Wednesday as the main area of low pressure moves through and drags a weak cold front across our region.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 11 to 17 C.

So now we know that within cold clouds we will usually have a combination of ice crystals and super-cooled water, this is the first step in our process of creating precipitation in cold clouds.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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