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Forecast: Warming up and drying out

Last week’s forecast turned out not too bad considering the extra lead time. Even the short-term forecasts struggled with the cool air late last week and while the first low didn’t kick northwards last Friday, the main low was still forecasted to bring significant rainfall chances to most of southern and central Manitoba last weekend and into the early part of this week.

This forecast period will begin with last weekend’s strong late-summer low pulling off to the northeast and continuing to intensify. This will help to develop a strong northerly flow across our region from Wednesday to Friday. Under this flow we will see sunny starts to the day with increasing clouds each afternoon.

Daytime highs will struggle into the upper teens to maybe the low 20s for those areas that can get a little more sunshine. Overnight lows look to be dropping into the 4 to 7 C range. Wind speeds look to stay up overnight, which will help to keep temperatures from getting too cool.

The first half of the long weekend looks to be pretty nice as high pressure is forecasted to build across the region. Temperatures look to moderate into the mid-20s by Saturday and Sunday as our winds become southwesterly. It looks like we should see mainly sunny skies with little probability of seeing any precipitation. The wild card for the weekend will be Monday. Currently, the weather models are showing an area of low pressure developing over the Northwest Territories and then rapidly deepening and moving towards Hudson Bay.

Should this low develop there is a good chance we will see a strong push of cold air dive southwards behind the low, which may bring much colder air into our region, with near-freezing overnight lows on either Tuesday or Wednesday morning over central regions. As usual, this is a long way off, so confidence in this part of the forecast is very low, but it is something to watch out for.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 17 to 27 C; lows, 6 to 13 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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