Surprisingly for spring, last week’s forecast played out close to what the weather models predicted. The expected Colorado low late in the week developed as the models thought it would.
It moved in earlier and moved out earlier and was not as strong as forecasted. It did intensify, but not until it was in northern Ontario, and that intensification allowed for much cooler air to move in last weekend.
During the final part of last week’s forecast, things fell apart. The Colorado low carved a deep trough of low pressure to our east, which allowed cooler-than-expected air to move in.
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This forecast period is not looking good. As with most unsettled spring forecasts, there is a lot of uncertainty.
The weather models show another storm system developing to our southwest and pushing northeastward into our region on Wednesday and Thursday. This looks to be a messy system, with eastern and southern regions seeing mostly rain. Western and more northern regions will see mostly snow.
Who sees which type of precipitation will depend on the track of the low. Regardless, this low is forecasted to move to the east by Friday.
The models then show the possibility of another Colorado low developing over the weekend of April 22-23. The track is forecasted to be typical of Colorado lows, with the centre pushing through the Lake of the Woods region.
This would place southern Manitoba on the cold side of the low, giving us a good chance of snow rather than rain. Again, there is a lot of uncertainty with this system.
To end this forecast, there is good news. The weather models are starting to agree on a significant warming trend toward the end of the month, with daytime highs pushing the 20 C mark. Fingers crossed that this forecast period will be the last one with any possibility of snow.
Usual temperature range for this period; highs: +5 to +17 C, lows: -5 to +5 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 35 per cent.
