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Weather: A mostly dry and warm spell ahead

western canada precipitation

FORECAST | Issued June 25, 2021, covering the period from June 30 to July 7, 2021

Well, it seems that the CMC (Canadian Meteorological Centre) weather model got it right last forecast period. The forecast low tracked well to our north and, thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure that was building to our west, we saw mostly dry weather with summer-like temperatures.

For this forecast period, the big question is whether the west ridge of high pressure and its associated hot temperatures will be able to push eastward into our region — or will the ridge collapse before making it to us? This time around, both weather models seem to agree.

Let’s look at the big picture. There will be a very large and strong ridge of high pressure centred over B.C., bringing sunny skies and hot temperatures to B.C. and Alberta. To our east, there is a large trough of low pressure stretching from Hudson Bay southward into the western Great Lakes. This is creating a blocking pattern, which means the western ridge will have a hard time pushing east.

What does this mean for our forecast region? For the first half of this forecast period we will be in a northwesterly flow, with the western ridge trying to slowly push into our region. Energy riding overtop of the ridge will slide southeast across our region every few days, bringing with it a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of the odd shower or thundershower. None of these systems look to be strong, meaning no widespread significant rains. Temperatures will be summer-like, with daytime highs in the mid- to upper 20s and overnight lows falling into the mid-teens.

For the second half of this forecast period (July 5-9), the models show the western ridge flattening and pushing east. This will continue our pattern of mostly dry weather with temperatures and humidity levels nudging upward a little bit. Looking further ahead, the weather models hint that the ridge will begin rebuilding — but this time across our region, which would result in hot weather moving in by late in the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 21 to 30 C; lows, 10 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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